A most analogous periods run suggests an S&P 500 value of approximately 1,250 by year-end, plus-or-minus roughly 40 points seven weeks out. The best fit historical epochs occurred in the mid-1990′s with the runner up, interestingly enough, being March 2009. Amazing how that puts us well back into the initial range of analyst 2010 year-end predictions — who would have guessed that back in the dog days of summer? I find the most useful application of studies such as this being near options based since price, time and range are all provided.
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