Dear rss free blog,
Today
is the 8th
anniversary of the murderous Taliban attack on my native city’s
financial center. And the financial center is busy ignoring the date,
helped by amnesia worldwide.
Europe
rose for a 7th
day in a row and Asia hit an 11-mo high based on good Chinese retail,
production, and industrial output growth data which apparently offset
a reduced Japanese Q2 growth figure.
Like
many observers, I take Chinese economic data with a grain of salt.
With a command economy, Beijing gets the statistics it wants from the
local Communist officials around the country. The numbers may not
jibe with reality.
However,
unlike countries I could name (you can too), China isn’t spending
money it does not have on stimulus. So the easing can continue. China
is not under pressure to tighten fiscal and monetary policy before
inflation hits.
The
MSCI index is up 4% this week, partly in reaction to the falling US
dollar. The anniversaries (9/11 and Lehman’s crash) have been brushed
off, except by mourners and victims.
Equity
funds in Europe, China, and Japan saw robust inflows in the week to
Weds. as investors continued to move cash into riskier,
higher-yielding assets, according to global fund tracker EPFR
of Cambridge MA.
They
wrote: ”markets resumed their advance as optimism about the outlook
for the global economy in 2010 convinced many investors that current
valuations are justified or, in the case of some developed markets
and China, still showing some value.
”During
the week ending Sept. 9 flows into Europe Equity funds hit a 5-wk
high; Japan Equity Funds has their 3rd
best week year-to-date and Emerging Middle East Africa Equity Funds
extended their current inflow streak to 8 straight weeks.
”Meanwhile
Money Market Funds surrendered another $13.9 bn.”
Freight
is a leading indicator so I attended part of a shipping derivatives
conference yesterday. My conclusion was that it provided a new
version of RORO, not roll-on, roll-off, but risk-on, risk-off. The
RORO refers to China. The shipping industry speakers, both dry-bulk
and VLCC (oil and products), were in total disarray. Some were rolling on and some were rolling off.
Actually
I was looking for a way to buy in the USA an investment linked to
freight rates. I was ahead of the market. There is none. Institutional readers with
real money can buy into the Maersk Vulture Fund just created
with a war chest of DKK 9.2 bn (about $1.75 bn). Some thoughts for
paid subscribers follow about one of our stocks and one that I still
own.
Feeding
the roll-on bullish side, China announced today that it will allow
foreign companies to list in Shanghai starting with one or two
companies this winter. The rules will be eased for stocks already
listed elsewhere, probably starting with Hong Kong.
The
delayed rains coming at last in India and Diwali coming too (Oct. 17 this year) will
also feed the sacred bull.
One
of our new paid subscribers (not the new Swiss one) asked how to
invest in Thailand in more modest amounts than buying individual
shares on the Nasdaq-like MAI. These are recommended by Paul Renaud
the analyst of www.thaistocks.com)
who writes for our paid subscribers.
There
are two U.S. Thai funds, neither of which has tracked the small caps
Paul finds by an intensive schedule of company visits. In fact,
neither of them has even managed to keep pace with the Bangkok
market. We used to favor one of them but have dropped it. A solution
for paid subscribers is discussed below.
