By: Scott Redler
I’ve been trading AAPL my entire career and every decade or so, a stock or sector comes along that can make your year (or even your career). AAPL has been my go-to stock since I started in this business and the company has defined a generation.
AAPL gives you many types of trades as you will see from the weekly chart below. I also posted a closer view of the most recent upper range. This stock has been one of the most reliable pattern trading stocks in the market for macro core trades, one to three day cash flow trades, and even day trading gap fills. You can see major core buys on the longer term chart with some of the best being in July 2007 around 100, September 2007 around 148, September 13, 2009 around 152, and March 2010 around 212-215. This new pattern that is setting up is very similar.
Those that trade within my community know I use different set ups for different types of trades. Since we trade in real-time and market participants want value added now, I put together the buy points and strategies of the past few weeks along with a new one if you want to be involved in what can be another big run in the fourth quarter.
Entry #1 was on August 27th between 237.20-239.00 when it did the “Red Dog Reversal.” It looked like it would break the lower range and those who had stops got sucked out of stock and some got short thinking resolution would be to the downside. The stock broke it’s range, reversed and closed strong.
Entry #2 was on September 1st when stock broke it’s short term Downtrend around 247-248. This was also the day the market confirmed a new uptrend, so it was very important for the AAPL to to lead, which it did. It also began acting very well during market pull-ins.
Entries #3 and #4 were just pivot day trades, but created nice cash flow.
Where are we now?
This stock now has a nice six month upper range that looks poised to break to the upside, very similar to some of the previous core buys. At this point most of my community is in tier one or two long and looking to add for a big break out. Some even added today for a new average cost around 256. If you are flat AAPL, you can buy tier one today. If we see some market weakness into resistance I definitely think you buy tier two if we can pull back and hold 256-260 (although this might not happen), but you need to hold some here if we don’t pull in. The next micro resistance is 269.50-272.
We use a tier system on how to enter and exit based on risk, so we have a big position when the pattern triggers and take profits along the way, holding some as it keeps working. The next major resistance is the old highs at 279.01 When AAPL trades above $279-280 holds, you must pay attention. It will see $300 and then $320.
If I could write I note to Steve Jobs, I would tell him to split his stock three to four for one and it would be above 300-320 in a New York minute! This would add demand for the stock as individuals who don’t buy stocks over $100 will be interested and brokers will feel comfortable buying it in this new low volume market. It would be a huge catalyst to get more market participants into this stock and take up supply. Take BIDU for example, with a ten for one split a few months back it’s really at $860 and no one talks about it like a blimp ready to pop.
AAPL will most likely see 300 without a split, but if you are sitting at your desk on the announcement buy as much as you can and turn off your computer.
