The Golden Sunrise
The essential morning read for investors!
Golden Sunrise is the Golden Surveyor’s broad-based market and world view.
Written daily 4am-7am by markets information specialist GS John!
Today’s Golden Sunrise
Tuesday, June 1, 200
Hours of daily research consolidated for you
April Showers, May Flowers-Not this Year!
Worst May in Decades:
|
Market |
April |
May |
ChangeMO |
%changeMO |
ChYTD |
%ChYTD |
|
Japan-Tpx |
987.04 |
880.46 |
-106.58 |
-10.798% |
-27.13 |
-2.989% |
|
HongKong |
21,108.59 |
19,976.15 |
-1132.44 |
-5.365% |
-1440.85 |
-6.728% |
|
Shanghai |
2870.61 |
2592.15 |
-278.46 |
-9.700% |
-670.85 |
-20.559% |
|
Taiwan |
8004.25 |
7373.98 |
-630.27 |
-7.874% |
-738.02 |
-9.098% |
|
South Korea |
1741.56 |
1641.25 |
-100.31 |
-5.760% |
8.25 |
0.505% |
|
Australia |
4807.4 |
4429.7 |
-377.7 |
-7.857% |
-403.3 |
-8.345% |
|
Singapore |
2,974.61 |
2,752.60 |
-222.01 |
-7.463% |
-127.4 |
-4.424% |
|
India |
17,588.71 |
16,944.63 |
-644.08 |
-3.662% |
-399.37 |
-2.303% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UK-FTSE |
5529.29 |
5188.43 |
-340.86 |
-6.165% |
-249.57 |
-4.589% |
|
Germany |
6135.7 |
5964.18 |
-171.52 |
-2.795% |
-47.82 |
-0.795% |
|
France |
3816.99 |
3597.56 |
-219.43 |
-5.749% |
-362.44 |
-9.153% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJIA |
11,008.61 |
10,136.63 |
-871.98 |
-7.921% |
-291.42 |
-2.795% |
|
S&P500 |
1186.69 |
1089.41 |
-97.28 |
-8.198% |
-43.58 |
-3.846% |
|
NasComp |
2461.19 |
2257.64 |
-203.55 |
-8.270% |
-50.36 |
-2.182% |
|
NDX100 |
2000.63 |
1852.39 |
-148.24 |
-7.410% |
-34.61 |
-1.834% |
|
R2000 |
716.6 |
661.61 |
-54.99 |
-7.674% |
21.51 |
3.360% |
|
NYSE |
7474.4 |
6791.57 |
-682.83 |
-9.136% |
-535.43 |
-7.308% |
|
Tran |
4670.72 |
4336.06 |
-334.66 |
-7.165% |
205.06 |
4.964% |
|
Util |
387.95 |
361.19 |
-26.76 |
-6.898% |
-37.81 |
-9.476% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada-TSX |
12,210.70 |
11,671.44 |
-539.26 |
-4.416% |
-30.56 |
-0.261% |
|
TSX Venture |
1673.8 |
1502.88 |
-170.92 |
-10.211% |
-51.12 |
-3.290% |
|
Brazil |
67,529.73 |
61,946.99 |
-5582.74 |
-8.267% |
-1349.01 |
-2.131% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gold |
1180.7 |
1212.2 |
31.5 |
2.668% |
115.2 |
10.501% |
|
Silver |
1861.1 |
1841.1 |
-20 |
-1.075% |
146.1 |
8.619% |
|
Copper |
333.75 |
309.7 |
-24.05 |
-7.206% |
-23.3 |
-6.997% |
|
Crude Oil |
86.15 |
73.97 |
-12.18 |
-14.138% |
-2.03 |
-2.671% |
|
Natural Gas |
3.92 |
4.341 |
0.421 |
10.740% |
-1.409 |
-24.504% |
|
CRB Index |
251.42 |
255.05 |
3.63 |
1.444% |
-29.95 |
-10.509% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$index |
81.99 |
86.50 |
4.51 |
5.501% |
8.55 |
10.969% |
|
Euro |
1.3308 |
1.2324 |
-0.0984 |
-7.394% |
-0.1967 |
-13.764% |
|
Yen |
1.0651 |
1.1007 |
0.0356 |
3.342% |
0.0289 |
2.696% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VIX |
22.05 |
32.07 |
10.02 |
45.442% |
10.39 |
47.924% |
|
VXN (Nas) |
22.06 |
31.61 |
9.55 |
43.291% |
9.96 |
46.005% |
|
VXV (S&P) |
20.98 |
30.63 |
9.65 |
45.996% |
6.74 |
28.213% |
|
RVX(R2000) |
28.34 |
38.491 |
10.151 |
35.819% |
10.341 |
36.735% |
The month of May did not have many winners…gold and the US dollar, the yen, natural gas which had been beaten to death, the CRB which is surprising, and the volatility family..which had been moving contra to the stock markets.
A quick scan of the %Change for the Month column compared with the %age change year to date will show that most of the categories moved from positive at the end of April to negative red for the year.
After looking at markets every day, recording hundreds of data points, and looking at charts, it still stuns me how much clarity is added by viewing a table because you just see a beginning point and an ending point, with a net result. The day-to-day is disguised by ups and downs, hidden among the indicators that add information but not always clarity, until you add them all up and find you had a world that declined 8% in a single month.
Touched a key Fib level of the Oct 2007 high to the March 2009 low. The next key level down has a mid 5 handle.
The weekly NYA shows an up week…see yesterday’s data points…but sell in May certainly seems to have had some number of believers as trade levels rose significantly from the rise off the Feb 5th bottom and ensuing weeks.
The weekly looks pretty good…bounce off the Fib level, up on the week on decent volume…but up so little…and the week ended poorly. See yesterday’s post for the daily chart..but what we have is one positive that day that was up really big and 4 negative days. Six of the seven days preceding last week were also red with one solidly positive day mixed in as dip buyers and bottom finders came in to take advantage of a buying pattern that has produced nice rewards for the last 13 months.
News from the last few days that could have impact on momentum.
The market reacted very negatively on Friday to the downgrade of Spanish debt. Spanish FinMin Salgado has declared that “nightmares over” as important issues are being confronted.
- A second, larger volcano in Iceland is forecast to erupt soon.
- There was a 6 level earthquake in the Philippines. (Add to Haiti, Turkey, Indiana, Chile, Central Europe, Mexico in recent months).
- The BP oil mess in the gulf continues and is now forecast to continue into August before relief is achieved. This is becoming a tragedy of epic proportions and the efforts have not even begun to estimate the scope and ramifications of this event.
- German President Horst Kohler resigns over the week-end over comments regarding the military and German interests. This is the first resignation instance since the end of World War II.
- Japanese government near overturn over the airbase issue on Okinawa which was created by the newly elected party-given the issues in Korea and the issues with China over oil/gas in the SpratleyIslands, this is a great time to be alienating your defense umbrella. My choice for the base site would be US territory Guam.
- Korean issues over boat sinking. This is eerily quiet.
- The Turkish-Israeli incident with relief supplies flotilla is a serious, serious matter…Turkey has played an important role and provided support for Israel on a number of fronts as a liaison in and to the region..
- The Bibi Netanyahu-Avigdor Lieberman combo have not succeeded in damaging relations with the most important of a limited number of supporters
- Chinese PMI number came out below expectations. Asia is down on the news which is not a good way to start the week.
- Hedge funds had a very bad month in May and these guys are supposed to be smarter, quicker, more flexible, more responsible and more savvy than everyone else. Trouble is there are far more hedge funds than the vehicles so they get bunched up in the same things everyone else does. There is also a tendency to get more aggressive to make up the gap when they fall behind their bonus bogeys so I would expect more volatility ahead.
- Iran continues to move forward on the nuclear front. This is a process that cannot be stopped short of an all-out attack from the US and Israel without the support of China and Russia both of whom have vested interests in their expanding economic relationships with Iran. In addition, French integrated oil giant Total and German exporters also find the profits from dealing with Iran to have more value than the risk of nuclear weapon expansion. Logic says that this will force a change in tactics in US strategy.
This is just a quick list indicating headwinds ahead for the markets. The charts aren’t saying why but they are reacting to something.
Gold is also telling a story: Monthly
The GDX: Like no one seems to be convinced about gold, the miners are worse-the gdx/gld ratio is well-under its’ normal average and the market is quick to sell-off the mining companies.
The real flight to safety may be about to begin.
The 20 year Treasury bonds: Note- two huge volume spikes. Weekly.
The etf for the dollar:
April is the first month of the worst 6 month period in the markets. It was pretty good. Usually Mays rebound off Aprils to be pretty good. Well, May was a horror show leading into the doldrums of summer.
In 6 weeks we have gone from recovery worldwide to pending disasters and crashes everywhere. News that European banks have another $250 billion in write-downs coming is not helping either.
Price will provide the answers. Asia was off ½ to 1%, and India down 1.95%. The Dax, CAC and FTSE are all off 2+%. US futures are red by just over 1%. Gold is up about $5 early to $1221.
JohnR
Goldensurveyor.com
