Ash is like cash. The airline eruption disruption now is blamed on ‘too much modeling, too little research’. That sounds familiar. Big picture forecasts of how the wind would blow took the place of micro examination of just what the impact on actual engines would be.
In investing too, beware the broad brush. For example, the speedy recovery of the ‘fear index’, the VIX, a measure of volatility, may not mean that all is now well again. There are a few alternative ways to view this indicator. One is to say that the trend reversal a sharp VIX move heralds has already happened, which I think is overstating Wall St.’s drop.
Alternatively, you could argue, as does Tom McClellan in his Oscillator that the VIX rebound came too fast and is ‘a sign of trader complacency’. For all that, I remain skeptical of Tom’s astonishing forecast that there will be a real correction by April 27. Such precision reeks of voodoo to this fundamentalist.
