By FXEmpire.com
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 10, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0287 on this Easter Monday. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak in a downtrend against neighboring New Zealand dollar. The pair is likely to find support at 1.0231, the low of January 13 and resistance at 1.0377, the high of January 12. The USD regained some of its strength over the weekend.
The dollar fell against major global currencies on Friday after the U.S. government reported that the economy added a net 120,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, far below market expectations that renewed talk of Federal Reserve easing measures.
AUD/USD has triggered a bearish trend-line breakout and is now holding beneath its 200-day average.
Our cycle analysis remains bearish and favors further mean reversion back into 1.0231, then 1.0146 and the parity level.
A great smooth currency for Newbie’s! We are currently at 1.0310 in a very nicely built downtrend. Building a nice bear flag currently for the break of the S6 at 1.0246 to targets below. We expect continuation this week to the support at 1.0250 and maybe the -1.270 Fibonacci extension at 0.9960. Watch the 1.0105 (-0.618 Fibonacci extension) for the bounce also. The average daily trading range (ATR) for the cross currently is 93 pips
China’s inflation edged up in March as the government shifted focus from containing politically dangerous price rises to stimulating its slowing economy.
The government said on Monday that consumer prices rose 3.6 per cent over a year earlier, up from February’s 3.2 per cent. That was driven by a 7.5 per cent rise in food costs, up from the previous month’s 6.2 per cent.
Economic Data April 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( most European markets are closed )
|
Apr. 09 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.85T |
0.66T |
0.14T |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
Economic Events April 10, 2012 that affect the AUD,NZD,JPY and CNY
02:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 1
The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.
04:30 JPY Interest Rate Decision 0.10%
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.1%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
23:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Business Confidence Index rates the relative six-month business outlook. The index is a leading indicator of economic health. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2500 businesses.
Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012
Apr 10 08:30 Holland Eur 2.5-3.5bn reopened Jan 2017 DSL auction
Apr 10 09:15 Austria Eur 1.32bn 3.2% Feb 2017 & 3.4% Nov 2022 RAGBs
Apr 10 14:30 UK Details I/L Gilt auction on Apr 19
Apr 10 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Apr 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
Apr 11 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund
Apr 11 09:10 Sweden Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills
Apr 11 09:30 Swiss Bond auction
Apr 11 09:30 UK Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt
Apr 11 10:00 Norway Details T-bill auction on Apr 16
Apr 11 14:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18
Apr 11 17:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt
Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19
Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction
Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication
Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds
Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction
Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz
Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Apr 19 15:00 US Announces 2Y Notes on Apr 24, 5Y Notes on Apr 25 & 7Y Notes on Apr 26
Apr 19 17:00 US Auctions 5Y TIPS
Apr 20 15:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26
Originally posted here
