AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 18, 2012 Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD dollar traded in a narrow range after moving higher overnight, following a muted response to the release of the minutes from the central bank’s board meeting. The Aussie was trading at 103.46 US cents, up from 103.27 US cents on Monday afternoon.

In the minutes, the RBA repeated its intention to cut the cash rate in May, provided consumer price index (CPI) data, to be released next week, shows inflation remains under control.

The Australian dollar climbed overnight as demand for the euro, which rose by more than one US cent overnight, helped lift risk currencies.

However, several pieces of negative news weighed on the currency coming into the local session.

The yield on Spanish 10-year debt bonds rose to 6.094 per cent overnight, up from 5.960 per cent at the close of trading on Friday. A yield of above six per cent is considered unsustainable for Spain.

In the US, economic data released showed an 0.8 per cent lift in retail sales, a sign confidence is improving among consumers in the world’s largest economy.

Economic Reports for April 16-17, 2012 actual v. forecast

13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.9%
13:30	CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases	12.50B	7.23B	-4.28B
13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.3%	1.0%
13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	6.6	18.0	20.2
14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	10.1B	41.3B	102.4B
Apr. 17	02:30	AUD	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.2%	-1.2%
06:30	INR	Indian Interest Rate Decision	8.00%	8.30%	8.50%

Economic Events scheduled for April 18, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

00:30:00 AUD Conference Board Australia Leading Index 1.10%

The Conference Board Australia leading Index released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It forecasts short to mid-term growth in the Australian economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

22:45:00 NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) 0.60% -0.30%

Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

23:50:00 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total ?-220.0B ?32.9B

The Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. Therefore, any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here