By FXEmpire.com
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 3, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
The AUD/USD were about level with where it was at on Friday, pulled in opposite directions by good Chinese economic data on Sunday and disappointing local data on Monday.
The Aussie is trading at 103.94 US cents, a a drop down from 103.95 cents on Friday.
The Aussie rose to an high of 104.47 cents after it was reported on Sunday that Chinese manufacturing activity rose for a fourth straight month in March.
China’s manufacturing got a mixed assessment on Sunday, as the official survey for March improved to its highest in a year and a competing survey by HSBC showed the sector moving deeper into contraction.
Key Points from the Report reflect
- Reduced factory output reflects falling new business from home and abroad
- Manufacturing employment down at sharpest rate in three years
- Input price inflation ticks higher, but remains modest overall
The pair fell 103.96 US cents after Australian Bureau of Statistics announced residential building approvals fell 7.8 per cent in February.
It does look like that enthusiasm is starting to fold a little bit and that’s what has brought the currency back below 104.00 US cents largely because we have that looming RBA decision just around the corner.
The RBA board is expected to keep the cash rate at 4.25 per cent on Tuesday.
Economic Data Monday April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast that affects the NZD, AUD, and JPY
|
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing Index |
49.5 |
51.3 |
|
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index |
-4 |
-1 |
-4 |
|
JPY |
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
AUD |
MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-7.8% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
IDR |
Indonesian Trade Balance |
0.70B |
0.93B |
0.92B |
Economic Calendar April, 3 2012 events that affect the NZD, AUD and JPY
02:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
05:30 AUD Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25%
05:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monthly rate statement contains the outcome of bank’s interest rate decision and discusses the economic conditions that influenced the decision. It can also give investors clues to the outcome of future decisions.
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction
Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11
Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction
Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions
Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12
Originally posted here
