AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 6, 2012 Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

REMEMBER MARKETS MOST MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON FRIDAY APRIL 6, 2012 AND MANY REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY APRIL 12, 2012

The AUD/USD was trading at 102.70 US cents, down from 102.82 cents yesterday.

The Australian dollar has been a star performer in recent times, spending most of the past year comfortably above the 100 US cent level. However, the currency has run out of steam lately, dropping more than five cents in the past month. While the marching Aussie dollar has been bad news for many sectors, such as manufacturing, traditional retail and local tourism, it has been a boon for online shoppers and holidaymakers. Experts say the bargains may soon be over with any falls in the dollar making it more expensive to shop online and travel overseas.

Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said while the currency was expected to trade between 100 and 110 US cents for most of 2012, it may dip below parity in the next few weeks.

“The speed of decline over the past couple of weeks has us a bit concerned,” he said.

“I suspect we are going to see a dip below parity sooner rather than later.”

It is likely to be a difficult month for the currency with markets sweating on next week’s release of, what is expected to be weak, Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) data, which happens to fall on Friday the 13th. Further signs of an economic slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, would hurt demand for the currency, he said.

Economic Reports for April 4 & 5, 2012 actual v. forecast that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Apr. 04	AUD	AIG Services Index	47.0	46.7
NZD	ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)	-1.7%	0.0%
AUD	Trade Balance	-0.48B	1.00B	-0.97B
USD	MBA Mortgage Applications	4.8%	-2.7%
USD	Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	209K	200K	230K
USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	56.0	57.0	57.3
USD	Crude Oil Inventories	9.0M	2.2M	7.1M
USD	Gasoline Inventories	-1.5M	-1.4M	-3.5M
Apr. 05	CNY	Chinese HSBC Services PMI	53.30	53.90

Economic Events scheduled for April 6, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

There are no local or regional reports due on April 6, 2012 and most markets are closed

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls

Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector. Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.

13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30 USD Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

There are no government bond auctions scheduled for Friday April 6, 2012

Originally posted here