By FX Empire.com
Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.
03:30 JPY Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00%
Ten JPY BoJ Press Conference
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. Which is then followed by a Press Conference detail the reason for the decision and also the economic status of the economy. ( This is a close watch.. might present an interesting trade )
04:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) 4.0% 4.0%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% -0.2%
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% 0.1%
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
15:00 USD Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (January 2009 – January 2013) is to speak. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments. ( This statement could have effect on the USD)
21:45 NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.1% 2.4%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.3% 2.2%
These reports are released together monthy measures the change of the Retail Sales in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level in New Zealand, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for New Zealand’s economy. This report might push the NZD up, especially against a weakened dollar.. (Watch this one closely. It might be a good trade. Below forecast sell NZD immediately, above Buy NZD immediately )
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 2.40%
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 14, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD is trading at 1.0742 as the markets close.
THE Aussie has fallen as the market responds with concern to news of turmoil in Greece as the debt-ridden nation’s parliament approves key austerity measures.
At midday today, the pair were trading at 106.95, down from 107.13 on Friday afternoon.
Over the weekend, the dollar fell to 106.40 US cents – its lowest point in nearly two weeks, as the Greek parliament debated an austerity package to allow it to attain a second round of debt support. The USD
There were several events in Austrialia, last week the ANZ announced a rate increase, this is a private bank not the RBA who held rates, today other banks followed suit raising mortgage and private rates. Also ANZ announced job cuts of 1000 employees.
The number of home loans approved in December rose 2.3 per cent to 48,453, the ABS said today. Economists’ forecasts had centred on housing finance commitments to be up 1.8 per cent for the December.
The pair seems to be sticking near this 107 US cent level, and it’s unlikely that today’s housing data will skew it in an alternative direction.
The USD will be waiting for several crucial reports due out, in the meantime, the movement of the pair should be in response to Greece only, so if the news is quite we can expect the duo to stick fairly lost to the 1.07 range.
Last weeks major economic reports actual v. forecast.
|
Feb. 06 |
15:00 |
Ivey PMI |
64.1 |
57.8 |
63.5 |
|
|
Feb. 07 |
03:30 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
4.25% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
|
Feb. 08 |
21:45 |
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.3% |
6.5% |
6.6% |
|
Feb. 09 |
01:30 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
4.5% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
|
12:00 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
358K |
370K |
373K |
|
|
Feb. 10 |
13:30 |
CAD |
Trade Balance |
2.7B |
0.7B |
1.2B |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.8B |
-48.4B |
-47.1B |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 14 09:30 Netherlands Eur 3.0bn-4.0bn Jan 2017 DSL
Feb 14 09:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Feb 14 10:10 Greece 3M T-bill auction
Feb 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Feb 14 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
Originally posted here
