Economic Events: (GMT)
03:30 AUD Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 4.25%
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 2.40%
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
AUD/USD was trading at 1.0714 The Australian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart Monday after weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers reduced the trend of the Aussie.
The question is with the AUD is what will the RBA due in tomorrows meeting. Australian retail sales disappoint in December, -0.1% MoM against expectations of +0.2%, increasing liklihood of RBA rate cut tomorrow
Job ads on other hand show biggest rise in 2 years, up by 6%, which might convince RBA to stay on hold
One Australian newspaper thinks RBA may leave rates on hold tomorrow on back of strong US data on Friday
General consensus in market is that RBA will stick by previous signals and cut by 25bps
Australian TD-MI inflation gauge steady at 0.2% MoM
The chance of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank tomorrow is decreasing. Until recent local economic data, the odds were heavily in favour of the RBA making it three rate cuts in a row when its monetary policy board meets.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
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