AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 28, 2012 Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD is nicely above the 105 US cent mark after climbing more than 0.8 of a cent against a weaker greenback overnight.

Towards the end of the Asian session, the Australian dollar was trading at 105.29 US cents, up from 104.48 cents on Monday.

The rally came after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the Fed would need to continue supporting the US economy, despite recent jobs growth.

Markets had been concerned that recent signs the US economy is recovering, including a fall in the unemployment rate, could prompt the Federal Reserve to start tightening monetary policy.

Following from this it is likely that we are going to see further US dollar weakness and the comments are basically a green light for stock markets to rally.

We’re expecting to see the Aussie dollar reach 105.80-106 US cents within the week.

March 26, 2012 Economic Data actual v. forecast

Mar. 26	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	109.8	109.7	109.7
EUR	German Current Assessment	117.4	117.0	117.4
EUR	German Business Expectations	102.7	102.6	102.4
USD	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	-0.5%	1.0%	2.0%

March 28, 2012 Economic Reports and Events that affect the JPY, AUD, NZD

01:30 AUD RBA Financial Stability Review

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review is released twice per year and contains an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.5% -3.0%

13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 3.0% -3.7%

Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity. Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Originally posted here