The FX Specialist view – The upmove in AUD/USD from the May-10 low exceeded the major 2008 peak, but started to lose momentum in November. Bulls are now cautious and we here look at what the danger signs could be.
- MONTHLY CHART
The break through the 0.9849 2008 peak has met with resistance from the long term bull channel top, around 1.0300.
Thoughts have also crept in about a possible change in chart structure which would imply bull fatigue – see below. - DAILY CHART:
Resistance had previously been suggested in the FX Specialist Guide around a Fibo projection close to 1.0200. After the Nov-10 test of this the chart structure has changed, now suggesting that bulls have tired. This resistance area, including prior recent highs, has again been a barrier in Feb.
The rising support line (at 0.9965 now) offers first support, and a break below this followed by breach of the 0.9800 12-Jan low would provide the initial bear signal
A later drop below the s/term channel base projection around 0.9640 currently, would provide bear confirmation, with temporary support then looking likely around the 0.9405 Nov-09 high (near to the current 38.2% pullback level).
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