By FXEmpire.com

Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0576 on Thursday the Aussie was able to break though the 1.06 price but was unable to maintain.

With strong eco data out of Australia supporting the AUD, the currency gathered momentum throughout the week on the back of a weakened USD.

The RBA held rates but issued a very positive and supportive statement, employment numbers shocked markets to the upside and all data was positive in Oz.

The overall attitude is that the AUD will continue to rise. Negative eco data from China, is now weighing on the currency as Australia is very dependent on its trade with China.

The drop in trade and imports will have a negative effect in Oz, but the hopes of monetary stimulus from the PBoC, is a positive factor, as the government prints money, Australia should be a major benefactors.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 10, 2012

1.0576

1.0572

1.0578

1.0498

0.04%

Aug 09, 2012

1.0572

1.0554

1.0613

1.0554

0.17%

Aug 08, 2012

1.0554

1.0534

1.0583

1.0532

0.19%

Aug 07, 2012

1.0534

1.0561

1.0603

1.0534

-0.26%

Aug 06, 2012

1.0561

1.0559

1.0593

1.0536

0.02%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug 6

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

-0.8%

-1.1%

NZD

Labor Cost Index q/q

0.5%

0.6%

0.5%

Aug 7

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

JPY

Current Account

0.77T

0.75T

0.28T

Aug 8

AUD

Home Loans m/m

1.3%

2.1%

-0.9%

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

1.6%

1.5%

-0.9%

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.7%

0.5%

1.3%

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

-0.6M

-6.5M

USD

10-y Bond Auction

1.68|2.5

1.46|3.6

NZD

Employment Change q/q

-0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

NZD

Unemployment Rate

6.8%

6.5%

6.7%

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

5.6%

11.1%

-14.8%

Aug 9

AUD

Employment Change

14.0K

10.2K

-28.3K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.2%

5.3%

5.3%

JPY

Overnight Call Rate

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

-0.7%

0.3%

USD

Trade Balance

-42.9B

-47.4B

-48.0B

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

371K

367K

USD

Mortgage Delinquencies

7.58%

7.40%

USD

Import Prices m/m

-0.6%

0.1%

-2.4%

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-69.6B

-103.0B

-59.7B

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug 13

13th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

0.3%

22:45

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

-2.5%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

0.7%

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.