By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0576 on Thursday the Aussie was able to break though the 1.06 price but was unable to maintain.
With strong eco data out of Australia supporting the AUD, the currency gathered momentum throughout the week on the back of a weakened USD.
The RBA held rates but issued a very positive and supportive statement, employment numbers shocked markets to the upside and all data was positive in Oz.
The overall attitude is that the AUD will continue to rise. Negative eco data from China, is now weighing on the currency as Australia is very dependent on its trade with China.
The drop in trade and imports will have a negative effect in Oz, but the hopes of monetary stimulus from the PBoC, is a positive factor, as the government prints money, Australia should be a major benefactors.
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
1.0576 |
1.0572 |
1.0578 |
1.0498 |
0.04% |
Aug 09, 2012 |
1.0572 |
1.0554 |
1.0613 |
1.0554 |
0.17% |
Aug 08, 2012 |
1.0554 |
1.0534 |
1.0583 |
1.0532 |
0.19% |
Aug 07, 2012 |
1.0534 |
1.0561 |
1.0603 |
1.0534 |
-0.26% |
Aug 06, 2012 |
1.0561 |
1.0559 |
1.0593 |
1.0536 |
0.02% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Aug 6 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-0.8% |
-1.1% |
|
NZD |
Labor Cost Index q/q |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
Aug 7 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.77T |
0.75T |
0.28T |
|
Aug 8 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
1.3% |
2.1% |
-0.9% |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
NZD |
Employment Change q/q |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.5% |
6.7% |
|
JPY |
Core Machinery Orders m/m |
5.6% |
11.1% |
-14.8% |
|
Aug 9 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
14.0K |
10.2K |
-28.3K |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
|
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
|
|
|
|
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
||
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9898 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Aug 13 |
13th-14th |
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
0.3% |
22:45 |
NZD |
Core Retail Sales q/q |
-2.5% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||
23:50 |
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m |
0.7% |
|
Aug 14 |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
1:30 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
Aug 15 |
0:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
3.7% |
1:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index q/q |
0.9% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
|
13:15 |
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
Aug 16 |
1:00 |
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
3.3% |
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input q/q |
0.3% |
|
Aug 17 |
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.