By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD broke above the 1.5 price level this week, with strong eco data, as jobs and retail sales, building permits and other regional and local data showed positive results for the Aussie nation.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Aug 03, 2012 |
1.0569 |
1.0456 |
1.0571 |
1.0446 |
1.08% |
|
Aug 02, 2012 |
1.0456 |
1.0468 |
1.0579 |
1.0436 |
-0.11% |
|
Aug 01, 2012 |
1.0467 |
1.0481 |
1.0542 |
1.0449 |
-0.14% |
|
Jul 31, 2012 |
1.0482 |
1.0496 |
1.0538 |
1.0477 |
-0.14% |
|
Jul 30, 2012 |
1.0497 |
1.0463 |
1.0508 |
1.0450 |
0.32% |
Of course the ECB and the FOMC decisions weighed heavily on the currency and the fluctuation of the dollar index charted along side of the Aussie.
Negative data from China remains the prime factor and concern for the AUD, and hopes of monetary stimulus from the PBoC seem imminent which would boost the AUD.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 30 – Jul 3 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 31 |
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
15.1 |
12.6 |
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
-2.5% |
-14.6% |
27.0% |
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
65.9 |
61.5 |
62.7 |
|
|
Aug 1 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
121K |
172K |
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.8 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
|
Aug 2 |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.0% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
0.01B |
-0.36B |
-0.31B |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
375K |
357K |
|
|
Aug 3 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
101K |
64K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.6 |
52.1 |
52.1 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9898 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
1:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-1.2% |
|
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Labor Cost Index q/q |
0.5% |
||
|
Aug 7 |
4:30 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
|||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.28T |
||
|
Aug 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
-1.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.9% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.3% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Employment Change q/q |
0.4% |
||
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Core Machinery Orders m/m |
-14.8% |
||
|
Aug 9 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
-27.0K |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
Aug 10 |
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
