Tuesday, August 10-Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index is seeing a good short-covering bounce Tuesday morning, following recent selling pressure that drove prices to a three-month low. The overall near-term technicals are still in favor of the dollar index bears. Remember that trending price moves in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than trends in other markets. One early clue that the dollar index has put in a near-term market low would be if the index could produce two strong up days in a row.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at theJune high of 1,129.20 and then at 1,140.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,116.60 and then at last week’s low of 1,102.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 1,918.00 and then at 1,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,900.25 and then at 1,883.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,600 and then more stops just below support at 10,570. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 10,685 and then at 10,700. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 129 27/32 and then at 130 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 129 4/32 and then at 129 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
129 27/32–lifetime high
129 30/32–second pivot point resistance
129 23/32–previous day’s high
129 18/32–first pivot point resistance
129 14/32–Previous Month’s high
129 10/32–pivot point
129 5/32–previous day’s close
129 3/32–previous day’s low
128 30/32–first pivot point support
128 24/32–4-day moving average
128 22/32–second pivot point support
128 5/32–9-day moving average
127 29/32–18-day moving average
125 7/32–previous month’s low
121 28/32–100-day moving average
111 1/32–lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 124.24.0 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 124.14.0 and then at 124.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes
124 28/32–second pivot point resistance
124 24/32–lifetime high
124 24/32–previous day’s high
124 21/32–first pivot point resistance
124 18/32–pivot point
124 15/32–previous day’s close
124 14/32–previous day’s low
124 11/32–first pivot point support
124 8/32–second pivot point support
124 5/32–4-day moving average
123 28/32–previous month’s high
123 24/32–9-day moving average
123 11/32–18-day moving average
121 14/32–previous month’s low
119 6/32–100-day moving average
110 13/32–lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading, on short covering in a bear market. The dollar index bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.50 and then at 81.67. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.84 and then at this week’s low of 80.34. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at 81.00 and then at the overnight high of $81.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Wheat will continue to be the leader in the grains, and that market has faded. Recent price action in wheat does suggest that a major market top is in place. That means the upside would also be limited in corn and soybeans. Traders are gearing up for USDA’s crop production report on Thursday. That report is not expected to be bullish for corn or soybeans, likely showing very large U.S. crops to be harvested in the coming weeks.
