 |
| The glass still looks half full to me. |
Yesterday Analyst Mary Ann Bartels of Bank of America’s technical research division said we will see a 10-12% pullback during the month of October. If she is right (which I don’t think she is) that would take the S&P below the September low and we would have our 10th 5%-10% move of the year with no traction in either direction. I guess I do my technical work different, and don’t work for a big shop like Merrill Lynch-Bank of America.
Right now we are experiencing a healthy pull-back and S&P is still in upper range of 1130-1150. I will measure the pull-in and then put out a prediction on where we can go. I’ve stated as long as we hold 1115-1118 the 200-day moving average (if we even test it) we will see 1180-1200 at some point this year. So I guess my view is different, or at least I haven’t seen signs that confirm her guess-timation of a move back to 1000-1040 area. We have lots of trades between now and then, and I will focus on being nimble.
Tech
AAPL yesterday pulled back to the prior 52 week high of 278 area. I bought small on the close just in case we didn’t get the last push down to the 271-275 area.
AMZN was stronger yesterday as it turned green first among the group.
NFLX after a two day move opened down 3 and went up 3 in 30 minutes, making a nice day trade for those looking to buy the pull-in on these leaders.
BIDU was not ready but I took home tier one long since it filled both Gaps and held 95 area. I would have liked to buy a ton at 92-93 but didn’t see it yet.
VMW continued to show some weakness. As we stated lately, it did not act well in end of September with CRM, but can see a bit of a bounce. VMW broke the ascending channel to down side- and might pause and be worth a buy vs. the 80-81 area for now, but it is showing signs a bigger correction is due.
CRM you can be long vs. recent 110.50 pivot.
GOOG looks good as it‘s holding the upper level. Lots of Fundamental guys starting to really get behind this as this one has not had any price sustainability in last year or so.
RIMM got hit a bit yesterday as they said there tablet would not be ready for holidays- I did sell some above 50.50 and more when we broke 50. I will hold the rest and use 48.70 as a stop.
Oil
BP EOG RIG DO all pulled in a bit after a nice 3 day up move. Now, it’s up to you on how to play it. I am out of all of them as I took the trade.
Gold is at new highs again. I sold the extra tier yesterday from the purchase on the break out on September 14th above $1265. I will hold a macro tier forever.
Casinos
Had a nice day yesterday
WYNN had a nice move above 88, but I was not in on the trade after listing it on price point sheet (oops!).
LVS is at new highs, but unfortunately I am out. We had macro buys on it at 19, then 24, again at 27, and most recently at 32. Now it’s out of my hands.
MGM looks ok, it’s a frustrating stock but if casinos keep going this can get to $12+, but how it gets there can drive you to drink.
Banks started off strong yesterda- then gave in as GS went negative first. I’m not sure here.
GS went negative first but if it gets through 148.50 it can get going (A BIG IF!).
JPM was strongest first and then gave way at end of day. Check action today. Positive call this morning from them.
BAC is still not “ready” yet. We listed it last week and pattern still intact, but simply must have BIG VOLUME to stay up. I will keep my eye on it.
