By: Scott Redler
This entire year our mantra has been to trade the short-term and mid-term trends.
There has been 8 moves of 5%-10% in both directions that have all happened in 2-10 days or less, which is important to note the volatility and lack of long-term trend. The moves happen quick, so traders MUST look for quick complexion changes/quick trend reversals and be willing to switch gears.
It’s much easier to make decisions on trading if you’re not caught in moves.
This is why we say, get to cash when you get a trend break or even get short if you have the skill-set.
August 11th we had another uptrend break so we went to cash and got hedged around 1104-1107. Now we are looking to see if this leads to a bigger correction, or just a pull-in. So we are trading levels to test market complexion vs. holding positions.
The 50% retracement of the entire move from of July from 1010-1130 is 1068-1072. We are trying to see if we can trade long vs. this level for a bounce. It worked the last time around 1056 around mid-July. This time feels a little different though. This level Is important to see if there are any dip buyers left. If we bounce, we will need to watch 1096-1103 resistance to trade the bounce.
No stocks are really acting well enough for more than a trade.
TECH
AAPL needs to see if it can hold 242-246 to see clues if we get hit hard or stabilize.
BIDU 80 level is important.
SNDK needs to hold 40.
HPQ I bought 40.20ish and sold most around 40.90 and will try and stay with as long as it stays above 39.95.
BANKS
GS first low is 147.50 then need to see if we can buy 144-145.
JPM we had a small bounce but not great, need watch 36.50-37.
AGS
POT see if it holds 110 and maybe can be added to long around 114ish, but risky.
AGU also just decent.
GOLD we are long from 113.20 and added 116.50 GLD, today we are getting nice gap up to resistance around 199.77.
FXE should be watched to see if it’s buyable around 125.50-126.50 after quick down move from 132.
Keep it tight and flexible today.
