Wednesday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, the Euro currency was given a boost by better-than-expected German industrial production data in April, at up 1.2% when a 0.2% decline was expected. China reported a trade surplus of $18.2 billion in April compared to expectations of a $15.6 billion surplus. Both imports and exports exceeded market expectations. Asian stock markets were supported on the China news. The upbeat German and China data also gave a modest boost to the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices slightly higher early today and poked to another new all-time high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,625.00 and then at 1,635.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,609.40 and then at 1,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near this week’s 12-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of 2,956.75 and then at 2,965.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,937.25 and then at 2,925.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,000 and then at 15,050. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 14,915 and then at this week’s low of 14,880. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls are in near-term technical trouble. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 13/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 146 31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 146 even and then at 145 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.23.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 132.28.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.17.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.400 and then at 82.610. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 82.040 and then at 81.835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then at $96.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were modestly higher in overnight trading, on short covering following recent losses. The U.S. Corn Belt is seeing drier and warmer weather this week and it appears a sizeable portion of the Corn Belt corn crop will get planted in the coming days. While that’s bearish for corn at present, there is some wetter and cooler weather in the forecast in the next 48 hours. The corn crop is still well behind normal for planting progress. Corn is presently the leader in the grains complex. Soybeans and wheat will follow the corn futures market for the near term. Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. However, the weather in the central U.S. is still the major fundamental factor in the grain futures markets, at present.
