* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
Improved investor risk appetite is the feature in the market place this week. The specter of a U.S. military strike against Syria has receded significantly this week, amid a Russian plan to have Syria’s chemical weapons placed under international control. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry will meet with his Russian counterpart Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss the matter. Asian stock markets were lifted Thursday on the increased investor risk appetite. In overnight news, there was weaker-than-expected economic data coming out of the European Union Thursday, which pressured European stock markets. Euro zone industrial production fell by 1.5% from June to July, for the steepest one-month decline in a year. Year-on-year the July decline in industrial production was 2.1%, which put Euro zone industrial production at a three-year low. This important piece of economic data now calls into question the ability of the European Union’s collective economy to pull out of recession. The next important piece of U.S. economic news on the docket is Thursday morning’s weekly jobless claims report. Many traders and investors are looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A slight majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. For the past several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export price indexes, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have upside momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 1,690.30 and then at the all-time high of 1,705.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,677.80 and then at 1,669.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of 3,189.25 and then at 3,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,167.25 and then at 3,160.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have gained good upside momentum recently. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,350 and then at 15,400. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,300 and then at 15,250. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131 16/32 and then at 131 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 1/32 and then at 130 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.24.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.11.0 and then at 123.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field as the bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.795 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.595 and then at 81.395. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $108.00 and then at the overnight low of $107.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Markets were weaker overnight on position evening. Focus is on Thursday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, at which time updated corn and soybean production forecasts will be given by USDA. There could be some surprises in this report, and if there are, it’s likely those surprises could be bullish. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain in firm technical command. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are now becoming less of market factor by the day.
