Well, the planting intentions is history. CK loses 9 1/2 cents and settles at 3.45. Acreages estimate was 88.8 mil acres, 2.3 more than last year. Stocks estimated at 7.694, 750mil more than last year. Gave us the lowest settlement since September. there is a gap on the charts down at 338. We should see that in the next few session.
Today will be interesting b/c its the last trading day before a holiday week, and the first trading day of a new quarter…
Crude oil dancing towards $85 a barrel will be the ace in the hole, so to speak for commodities. A rising tide lifts all boats, and if we get crude taking off, it will naturally support the grains eventually. If the money comes in, it will raise all boats in the harbor.
Wheat continues to look like the weakest link in the commodities. May settled below the key reversal point, and the double bottom low close. Now we have to wait for the Jun 30th stocks report to see what’s up. Bottom line, our wheat is still the most expensive wheat in the world. Its hard to argue with that math, no matter how nationalistic and patriotic you may be.
Beans took it on the chin, with old crop melting 33 cents to 9.41. Acres came in within estimates at 78.1 mil. up 600K from last year. Bean stocks ended at 1.270 bil bushels, down 32 mil from last year, but… 63mil more than the average guess. High stocks eliminates the fear of tight carryout, and deflated the hopes of bulls who had been buying old crop, selling new crop. The rush to the exits yesterday left footprints on the faces of the longs. New crop beans closed on their highs, with the end to strike talk in Argentina with the stevedores. We also saw winding out of the long meal short soy oil spread as well. All in all, a correction, pure and simple.
Bean bulls will have to hang their hats on the drought to pull us back towards the height of Icarus. He’s up there waiting, we just need the fuel to get there.
Switch to the stocks, as I write this, the Dow’s last print is 10.948…. 11,000 is within a marble’s roll. Today is the first day of the new quarter, so we should see money inflows from the funds. People are still saving in their 401k’s and that money has to go somewhere.
Tomorrow is good Friday, but the bond’s will be open in the face of the unemployment number coming out at 730AM CST.
Once again, the pivot will be the psychologically important 10percent level. If that holds, then I see money coming back in.
11,500 gives us a nice 5,000 point rally for some politician to hand his/her/their hat on. Like Chef Justin Wilson Cajun “J’vous garantis used to say,, “I guarauntteee”
Good Trading
