Summary: Industrial and Materials stock sectors show strength, while the broader stock market continues to consolidate losses in a trading range.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose further above 7-month highs on 9/8/10.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.99% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.68% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
4.37% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.66% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
5.60% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
4.70% , KMX , CarMax
0.33% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.52% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.47% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
1.74% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
0.49% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.79% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
5.29% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
2.85% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.52% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
3.02% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.98% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
4.18% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
2.87% , SLM , SLM CORP
3.93% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
2.88% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
0.81% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
1.73% , ALTR , ALTERA
4.42% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.45% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
3.39% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.51% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
3.68% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.34% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
4.42% , EBAY , EBAY
1.92% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
3.25% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.67% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
3.37% , KEY , KEYCORP
3.13% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
3.17% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.18% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
5.14% , CIEN.O , CIENA
2.01% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.79% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.00% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-3.86% , NI , NISOURCE
-2.97% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-3.53% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.18% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-4.36% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-0.87% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.57% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.78% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-0.46% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.18% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.24% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.46% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.33% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.95% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.21% , INTC , INTEL
-1.09% , SYK , STRYKER
-1.05% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.45% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.32% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.31% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-1.48% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
-0.98% , HAR , Harman International
-0.43% , BMS , BEMIS
-1.63% , PPL , PPL
-1.20% , ED , CON ED
-0.86% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-0.45% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.44% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.49% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.96% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.00% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.66% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
-0.41% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.42% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.61% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.92% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-1.15% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.44% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.20% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish, with the ratio above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU rose to another new 8-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.74 and 32.08.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose further above 7-month highs on 9/8/10. Technically, the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA–although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in days ahead. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.46, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to another new 3-month low on 9/2/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/10 but is only neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been mostly bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned mostly bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish—despite a technical bounce from 8/25/10 to 9/3/10. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/7/10, turning bearish. The price 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 9/1/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish (trending upward) since 11/19/08. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be trending lower again in recent weeks, since 8/3/10. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA on 9/7/10, thereby turning neutral. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Long term, IWM/SPY has been bullish (trending upward) since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract appears to be consolidating losses since its low of 8/25/10. Oil has been heading down most days since making a high at 83.40 on 8/4/10. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose further above 8-week highs on 9/8/10 before reversing to close moderately lower on the day. Gold still appears to be in a significant uptrend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8 and 1267.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-month highs on 9/3/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price may have entered a minor downside correction for the short term. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 129.22, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/26/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears somewhat bearish short term. The Secondary, intermediate-term trend appears probably bearish. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 33.3% Bulls versus 32.2% Bears as of 9/8/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.03, up from 0.78 the previous week, which was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,098.87) rose 7.03 points or 0.64% on Tuesday 9/8/10 to recover a normal fraction of Monday’s steeper loss. Absolute price remains neutral, below the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 2 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Further consolidation seems likely in days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1105.10, high of 9/3/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.01% Sweden Index, EWD
1.79% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.61% Russia MV, RSX
1.48% India PS, PIN
1.37% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.35% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.33% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.26% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.26% Networking, IGN
1.24% France Index, EWQ
1.20% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.19% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.16% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.13% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.12% European VIPERs, VGK
1.08% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.08% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.04% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.04% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.02% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.02% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.99% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.98% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.97% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.95% Australia Index, EWA
0.94% South Africa Index, EZA
0.93% Dividend International, PID
0.92% Spain Index, EWP
0.91% Italy Index, EWI
0.89% South Korea Index, EWY
0.86% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.85% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.84% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.83% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.82% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.81% Energy DJ, IYE
0.79% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.79% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.79% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.77% EAFE Index, EFA
0.77% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.77% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.75% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.75% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.74% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.73% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.72% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.72% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.72% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.72% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.70% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.69% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.68% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.67% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.67% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.67% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.66% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.66% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.66% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.66% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.65% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.64% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.64% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.63% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.63% Energy Global, IXC
0.62% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.62% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.61% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.61% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.60% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.60% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.60% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.59% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.57% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.56% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.56% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.56% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.56% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.55% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.55% Germany Index, EWG
0.53% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.53% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.52% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.52% Water Resources, PHO
0.51% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.50% Global 100, IOO
0.50% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.50% Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.48% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.47% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.46% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.46% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.45% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.45% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.44% China 25 iS, FXI
0.44% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.44% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.43% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.41% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.41% Canada Index, EWC
0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.40% Singapore Index, EWS
0.36% Mexico Index, EWW
0.34% Austria Index, EWO
0.33% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.29% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.28% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.27% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.26% Japan Index, EWJ
0.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.21% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.16% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.14% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.06% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.01% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.20% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.28% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.30% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.32% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.44% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.48% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.78% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.87% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
