The Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages both closed above the highs of the past 3 weeks, signaling an end of the 6-week Secondary Reaction.
The DJ Transportation Average rose above both 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10 and is bullish.
The DJ Industrial Average rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10, remains below its 50-day SMA, and is neutral.
The DJ Utilities Average rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10, remains modestly below its 200-day SMA, and is neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above 7-year highs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish.
Technology Stock Sector absolute price rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10.
Consumer Staples Stock Sector absolute price rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10.
Utilities Stock Sector absolute price rose above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10, although the 50 remains below the 200 SMA.
Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10 and so turned neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10 and so turned neutral.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio moved further above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose further above its 200 SMA on 6/15/10 and remains neutral.
Russell 1000 Value ETF absolute price rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.
Growth Stock ETF absolute price rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price jumped up above 4-week highs on 6/15/10, thereby signaling a short-term uptrend.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 3-week lows on 6/15/10, confirming the short-term sell signal on 6/14/10.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/15/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) broke out above resistance to its highest level in nearly 4 weeks and closed above its 200-day SMA. The recent Double Bottom near 1040 allows an upside projection above 1160. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows around 1040 several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to have begun.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.46% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.34% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
3.24% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
10.52% , TER , TERADYNE
2.01% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
4.16% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.48% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
4.21% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
4.28% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.93% , PMR , Retail, PMR
4.06% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.77% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
8.64% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.50% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
5.72% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
6.95% , DELL , DELL
5.73% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
5.69% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.58% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
7.59% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.01% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
5.28% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
6.48% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
5.22% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
6.08% , XLNX , XILINX
2.69% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
5.65% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.55% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
4.16% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
4.50% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
6.52% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.36% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
5.35% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
2.22% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.85% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
4.13% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
1.53% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
2.57% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
4.58% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.50% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
– -6.07% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.36% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.63% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-5.41% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.61% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-3.84% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-4.06% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-2.76% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.31% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.48% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.14% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-2.04% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 5/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY has remained above its 200-day SMA consistently since 2/23/09. Support 30.34. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) remains neutral, according to the 50/200 trend-following moving average system. Absolute price of XLI rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10 and has continued to trend higher. Support 27.40. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10. Support 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10. Support 25.78 and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) moved above 4-month highs on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU rose above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10, although the 50 remains below the 200 SMA. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.02, 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of XLE rose toward but remains below 50- and 200-day SMAs. Support 50.15 Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV firmed up since breaking down below 6-month lows on 5/25/10. Still, price is technically bearish because price is below both SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) and the absolute price of XLF both remain neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB has bounced since falling below 9-month lows on 6/8/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.55. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EEM also is neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains bearish.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio moved further above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose further above its 200 SMA on 6/15/10 and remains neutral.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 3-month highs on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above 7-year highs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/15/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWM closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of MDY closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price jumped up above 4-week highs on 6/15/10, thereby signaling a short-term uptrend. Ascending Triangle bottom allows an objective above 80. Support 69.51, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.74, 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above its all-time high at 1249.7 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains technically bearish, with the Ratio below both SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA.
Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Copper nearest futures price has bounced since breaking down to a new 7-month low of 2.72 on 6/7/10 but remains in a downtrend, probably reflecting recent uncertainties about the global economic prospects. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.72. Resistance 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating gains since setting a 14-month high at 126.05 on 5/2510, which reflected a flight to safety. Support 121.06, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.05, 126.15, and 130.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been moving with the stock market and remains neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below 3-week lows on 6/15/10, confirming the short-term sell signal on 6/14/10. Support 85.325, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 38.5% Bulls versus 31.9% Bears as of 6/9/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.21, down from 1.40 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index closed at 25.87 on 6/15/10, its lowest level in a month. A falling VIX suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to 26.37 on 6/15/10, its lowest level in month. A falling VXN suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) broke out above resistance to its highest level in nearly 4 weeks and closed above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10. The recent Double Bottom near 1040 allows an upside projection above 1160. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows around 1040 several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to have begun. Support 1040.78, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1130.29, 1151.41, 1173.57, 1181.49, 1219.80, 1220.03, and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1181.49, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2010 range
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1151.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1130.29, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.74% Spain Index, EWP
5.73% Italy Index, EWI
5.35% Sweden Index, EWD
5.08% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.99% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
4.73% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.41% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
4.36% Russia MV, RSX
4.35% Austria Index, EWO
4.28% Netherlands Index, EWN
4.21% South Africa Index, EZA
4.16% France Index, EWQ
4.16% EMU Europe Index, EZU
3.73% Belgium Index, EWK
3.71% European VIPERs, VGK
3.59% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.31% Germany Index, EWG
3.17% EAFE Index, EFA
3.13% Indonesia MV, IDX
3.11% Water Resources, PHO
3.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.07% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.07% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.04% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
3.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
3.02% Industrial SPDR, XLI
3.02% Emerging Markets, EEM
3.02% Switzerland Index, EWL
3.01% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
3.01% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
3.00% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.96% Networking, IGN
2.95% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.94% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.93% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.92% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.91% India PS, PIN
2.88% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.80% Energy DJ, IYE
2.79% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
2.78% Global 100, IOO
2.76% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.71% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.70% Canada Index, EWC
2.68% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
2.67% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.67% Energy Global, IXC
2.64% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.63% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.63% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.62% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.61% Mexico Index, EWW
2.59% South Korea Index, EWY
2.57% United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.56% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.54% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
2.51% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.51% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.51% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
2.50% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.50% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.48% MidCap Russell, IWR
2.47% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.47% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.44% Financial DJ US, IYF
2.43% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.39% Dividend International, PID
2.38% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.37% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.37% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
2.37% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
2.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.36% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
2.36% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
2.35% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.33% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.31% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.30% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.29% China 25 iS, FXI
2.27% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
2.27% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
2.27% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.25% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
2.24% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.24% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
2.23% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.22% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
2.22% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.22% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.20% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.19% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
2.18% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
2.17% Value VIPERs, VTV
2.17% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
2.17% Australia Index, EWA
2.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.15% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.14% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.10% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.06% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.01% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.99% Singapore Index, EWS
1.99% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.97% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.94% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.92% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.86% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.85% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.81% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.81% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.79% Japan Index, EWJ
1.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.78% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.71% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.68% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.51% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.32% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.16% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.13% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.01% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.84% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.30% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.18% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.31% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.41% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
