Perhaps Hank Kashin is right. About 3 months ago, I watched him on CNBC, and he was commenting that the rate of job losses was slowing. At the time, he noted, quite accurately, that pretty soon, there would be no one left to fire. Knocking off jobs at 500K plus a month for about 2 years eventually leads to an exhaustion point. Today we were expecting negative 130K and we only got negative 11K losses.
The indexes spiked higher, crude oil spiked higher, while gold and silver finally look to be having a real correction for the first time since we broke through 1000 an ounce gold, and 19 dollar an ounce silver.
I think for the rest of the year we have sideways to higher chop in the equities and crude oil, while the commodities will remain sensitive to the dollar, as well as any weather issues coming out of South America with their new bean crop. The funds have gotten long over the past 2 months in both corn and beans, and we will have to see if those contracts can continue to have firm support.
In the Jan beans today, we have a high print at 1050 1/2 and a low at 1034 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents. There is support down at the 1020 level, which we may test today.
In the Dec corn, we have a high at 384 1/2 and a low at 379, down 6 1/4 cents so far, looking to test the 375-369 level, perhaps. Dec Wheat has a low at 548 and a high at 559 3/4, for an 11 cent trading range, as it too looks to move lower with the dollar strengthening, making our crops less attractive on the world market.
A quick re-cap in the stock indexes has SPZ posting a new 9-month high at 1119 with a low at 1109.80 currently at 11110, up 12 handles. DJZ rallied to 10,500 level again testing that round number. It is up 98 points currently at 10450, as traders continue with their technical ranges. For the rest of the year, I would look for a chop sideways to higher. Pretty much after the 15th, people will be done for the year.
Good Trading
