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Daily State of the Markets |
With chants of “Dow 10K… Dow 10K” once again rising from the streets at the corner of Broad and Wall yesterday, it is easy to believe that the bulls are back on track and that we’ll soon be looking at new highs for the stock market. And when reviewing the data inputs to yesterday’s 204 point romp, it is also easy to don the Dow10K hat once again and join in on the celebration.
If you detected a modest degree of cynicism in the above statement, you’ve earned a gold star. While yesterday was indeed a strong showing by the bull camp and the reasons behind the rally were solid, I frankly don’t understand the media’s fascination with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the seemingly magical 10,000 level. It’s as if a close above 10K means everything is right with the world while anything below is an indication that the bears are running the show again.
But getting back to the point, the market’s ability to rebound after a brush with the dark side this week has been impressive. Although the volatility has been high and yesterday’s volume was very lackluster by “melt up” standards, the bulls are to be given credit for recapturing the important technical levels this week. However, there is one summit yet to scale – the old highs.
Yesterday’s run for the roses was sponsored by Cisco (CSCO) and some economic data that, at first blush, wasn’t terribly inspiring. Take the reports from the nation’s retailers for example. While sales at most stores pulled back from September’s impressive levels – leading one to believe that the data was disappointing – it is important to keep in mind that the October sales gains were the best monthly results since July 2008.
Other data points were less confusing. For example, Q3 nonfarm productivity jumped 9.5%, which was well ahead of the expectations for an increase of 6.5%. And it is worth noting that this was the biggest quarterly increase in six years. The source of the improvement was an increase in employee output (up 4%), while employee hours fell by 5% (this was the ninth straight quarterly decline for hours worked). Thus, Unit Labor costs fell 5.2% from last quarter. While this data isn’t so hot from the consumer’s standpoint, Wall Street sees it as improving the backdrop for earnings.
The bulls also got a hand from the always-upbeat John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems. Mr. Chambers has made a career out of beating the street estimates by a penny quarter after quarter (well, except during those nasty bear market periods, of course). But this time Cisco came through with an earnings report that beat the street by $0.05. Chambers went to say all the right things including an increase of revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter.
So, are the bulls back on track? In looking at the Dow, we’d have to say that if the rally can avoid stalling out here, the answer is yes. But in looking at the charts of the NASDAQ or Russell 2000, we’ll have to conclude that our heroes in horns still have some work to do. And we should also remember that while the DJIA did manage to bust back above the all-important 10,000 level, the volume left a lot to be desired. However, this is easily explained by the idea of traders waiting to see this morning’s jobs report before jumping back in with both feet.
Turning to this morning, it’s the piece of economic data we’ve all been waiting for – the Big Kahuna – the Jobs Report. The Labor Department reported that Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of October fell by 190,000 jobs, which was worse than the expectations for a decline of 175,000. The good news is that September nonfarm payrolls were revised lower to -219K from -263K. And August’s numbers were also improved; creating a total of 91K fewer jobs lost during August and Sept.
But the big surprise in the report was the Unemployment Rate, which came in at 10.2%; well above the consensus estimate for a reading of 9.9%. The Unemployment Rate is now the highest since April 1983.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are mixed by region with Asia following Wall Street’s lead while Europe hovering around breakeven. Crude futures are lower with the latest quote showing oil trading down by $1.03 to $78.59. On the interest rate front, we’ve got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.46%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.04%. Finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. have reversed on the jobs data and are now pointing to a lower open. The Dow futures are currently off by about 50 points; the S&P’s are down by about 5 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 9 points below fair value at the moment.
| Earnings After The Bell | |||
Company |
Symbol |
EPS |
Reuters Estimate |
| Activision Blizzard | ATVI | $0.04 | $0.04 |
| Sotheby’s | BID | -$0.89 | -$0.31 |
| CBS Corporation | CBS | $0.39 | $0.22 |
| Choice Hotels | CHH | $0.56 | $0.52 |
| California Pizza Kitchen | CPKI | $0.24 | $0.24 |
| EOG Resources | EOG | $0.81* | $0.66 |
| Fannie Mae | FNM | $3.47 | -$2.14 |
| Hansen Natural | HANS | $0.60 | $0.63 |
| Intl Game Technology | IGT | $0.20 | $0.16 |
| JDS Uniphase | JDSU | $0.04 | $0.02 |
| Millipore | MIL | $0.95 | $0.93 |
| Morton’s Restaurant | MRT | -$0.16 | -$0.07 |
| NVIDIA | NVDA | $0.19 | $0.10 |
| Public Storage | PSA | $1.44 | $1.25 |
| Rovi Corp | ROVI | $0.33 | $0.37 |
| Boston Beer | SAM | $0.72 | $0.40 |
| Starbucks | SBUX | $0.24 | $0.21 |
| Sunoco | SUN | -$0.29 | $0.03 |
| VeriSign | VRSN | $0.33 | $0.32 |
| Earnings Before The Bell | |||
Company |
Symbol |
EPS |
Reuters Estimate |
| American Intl Group | AIG | $0.68 | $1.98 |
| Brookfield Asset Management | BAM | $0.17 | $0.32 |
| Kelly Services | KELYA | -$0.35 | -$0.24 |
| Fortress Investment | FIG | $0.09 | $0.09 |
| Lifepoint Hospitals | LPNT | $0.59 | $0.56 |
| Scripps Networks Interactive | SNI | $0.39 | $0.37 |
Wall Street Research Summary
Upgrades:
Ternium (TX) – Barclays Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) – Barclays Amazon.com (AMZN) – Bernstein General Electric (GE) – Bernstein Lennar (LEN) – Credit Suisse Lamar Advertising (LAMR) – Credit Suisse Meritage Homes (MTH) – Credit Suisse Realty Income (O) – Credit Suisse The Travelers (TRV) – Goldman Sachs XL Capital (XL) – Goldman Sachs Con Edison (ED) – Removed from Conviction Sell at Goldman NYSE Euronext (NYX) – HSBC Aqua America (WTR) – HSBC Macy’s (M) – JP Morgan Taser Intl (TASR) – JP Morgan Tractor Supply (TSCO) – Thomas Weisel
Platinum Underwriters (PTP) – Goldman Sachs RenaissanceRe (RNR) – Goldman Sachs WGL Holdings (WGL) – Added to Conviction Sell at Goldman Quicksilver Resources (KWK) – Jefferies ResMed (RMD) – Jefferies Rosetta Stone (RST) – Jefferies Cardinal Health (CAH) – Jefferies Aeropostale (ARO) – UBS
Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, ARO
* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable
Enjoy your Friday, have a pleasant weekend, and until next time, “may the bulls be with you!”
David D. Moenning
Founder TopStockPortfolios.com
For more “top stock” portfolios and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
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