November 8, 2011
An online version of this newsletter is available at http://www.tonihansen.com/Newsletters/current.html.
Daily Commentary
Market Struggles (Note: Unless otherwise stated, the index action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.) FRIDAY’S MARKET WRAP-UP Market Snapshot for November 7, 2011 (11:28 p.m. ET): Closing Prices: DOW 12,068.39 (+85.15, +0.71%), SandP 500 1,261.12 (+7.89, +0.63%), NASDAQ 2,695.25 (+9.10, +0.34%), Nikkei 225 8,701.46 (-65.63, -0.75%), DAX 5,928.68 (-37.48, -0.63%), FTSE 5,510.82 (-16.34, -0.3%) OIL 95.59, GOLD 1,793.60, SILVER 34.81 EURO 1.3745, YEN 78.01, BRITISH POUND 1.604, U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 77.23 Tricky Trading Environment Volume was on the light side on Monday as the market plodded along without any strong direction. The upper channel resistance on the 30 minute time frame held the market in early in the session as anticipated with highs established for the morning by 10:00 a.m. ET, but the rollover offered little for strong intraday trading strategies. The Nasdaq had the best technical guidance, hitting a third high on the 2 minute time frame heading into the reversal, but once the selling began it was marked by a great deal of overlap from one bar to the next on the five minute time frame with choppy trade throughout most of the session. The buyers returned in the early afternoon after the market hit support at 12:30 ET, but the pace was slow to begin with before popping into 14:00 ET. The recovery after that point was similar to morning trade with a lot of overlap and no clean continuation patterns. Nevertheless, the market managed to recover the morning’s losses and returned to close at the day’s highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) Index Wrap-up The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the day on Monday with a gain of 85.15 points, or 0.71%, and closed at 12,068.39. Twenty-four of the Dow’s index’s thirty components posted a gain. The top performers were Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) (+3.37%), Home Depot (HD) (+2.61%), and Intel (INTC) (+2.27%). The weakest were Alcoa (AA) (-1.65%) and Caterpillar (CAT) (-0.77%).
The SandP 500 ($SPX) finished the session with a gain of 7.89 points, or 0.63%, and closed at 1,261.12. The strongest individual percentage performers in the index were Amgen (AMGN) (+5.91%), Pulte Group (PHM) (+4.74%), Express Scripts (ESRX) (+4.16%), and Nabors Industries (NBR) (+4.01%). The weakest were Quanta Services (PWR) (-4.06%), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) (-4.05%), and First Solar (FSLR) (-3.73%). The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the session higher by 9.10 points, or 0.34%, on Monday and it closed at 2,695.25. The top index components in the Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) were Warner Chilcott (WCRX) (+6.11%), Amgen (AMGN) (+5.91%), Express Scripts (ESRX) (+4.16%), and Yahoo (YHOO) (+2.95%). The weakest were Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) (-9.31%), First Solar (FSLR) (-3.73%), and Electronic Arts (ERTS) (-2.82%). SandP 500 (Figure 2) OUTLOOK Getting Technical A shift in momentum overnight with a slower pullback in the index futures into the European open allowed the buyers to mount another push higher into early premarket trade, but, as I mentioned yesterday, the highs from last month will be a tough resistance level to break and the slower pace of the buying compared to November 3rd’s rally will make it even more difficult to push through that resistance level. Earnings to continue to watch for this week include Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GMCR) and Dean Foods (DF) on Wednesday; Kohl’s (KSS) and Nvidia (NVDA) on Thursday, and DR Horton (DHI) on Friday. Nasdaq Composite (Figure 3)
ECONOMIC REPORTS AND EVENTS THIS WEEK
Nov 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05 Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05 Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29 Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov International: Eastern Time Zone (GMT -4:00) (New York, Toronto) Nov 6 19:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (OCT) Nov 7 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT) Nov 7 03:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (OCT) Nov 7 03:15 CHF CPI – EU Harmonised (OCT) Nov 7 04:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (NOV) Nov 7 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (SEP) Nov 7 06:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (SEP) Nov 7 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (SEP) Nov 7 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (OCT) Nov 7 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (SEP) Nov 7 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (OCT) Nov 8 01:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (OCT) Nov 8 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (SEP) Nov 8 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (SEP) Nov 8 04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (SEP) Nov 8 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (OCT) Nov 8 10:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (OCT) Nov 8 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV) Nov 8 18:50 JPY Trade Balance – BOP Basis (SEP) Nov 8 19:30 AUD Home Loans (SEP) Nov 8 21:00 CNY Consumer Price Index (OCT)*** Nov 8 21:00 CNY Producer Price Index (OCT)*** Nov 9 CNY Industrial Production YTD (OCT) Nov 9 CNY Industrial Production (OCT) Nov 9 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (OCT) Nov 9 CNY Retail Sales YTD (OCT) Nov 9 CNY Retail Sales (OCT) Nov 9 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (OCT) Nov 9 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (OCT) Nov 9 04:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (SEP) Nov 9 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (SEP) Nov 9 09:30 USD Bernanke Speaks at Fed Conference on Small Business Nov 9 16:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (OCT) Nov 9 18:50 JPY Machine Orders (SEP) Nov 9 19:30 AUD Employment Change (OCT)*** Nov 9 19:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (OCT)*** Nov 9 19:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change (OCT) Nov 9 19:30 AUD Part Time Employment Change (OCT) Nov 10 CNY Trade Balance (OCT) Nov 10 JPY Consumer Confidence (OCT) Nov 10 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (OCT P) (OCT P) Nov 10 02:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (OCT F)*** Nov 10 02:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (OCT F)*** Nov 10 04:00 EUR ECB Publishes Nov. Monthly Report *** Nov 10 07:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV)*** Nov 10 07:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (NOV 10)*** Nov 10 08:30 USD Trade Balance (SEP) Nov 10 14:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (OCT) Nov 10 18:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (SEP) Nov 11 CNY New Yuan Loans (OCT)*** Nov 11 04:30 GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (OCT) Nov 11 04:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (OCT) Nov 11 04:30 GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (OCT) Nov 11 09:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV P)*** *** Highly influential Notice: The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only those deemed “medium to high impact”.
KEY EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK
Monday, Nov 7, 2011 Before: AWR, BLTI, BSFT, CCJ, CRNT, CNIT, CYD, CDE, DISH, SATS, XPO, FSCI, HWCC, LAWS, LEE, LOJN. LPX, MNTA, NNN, ORBK, KWK, SHEN, SYY, NGLS, TESO, TW, TRCR, TRGP, VRS During: – After: AVCA, ATSG, ALXA, AMAG, ASEI, ARCI, ATLS, BWC, BRS, CATM, CFN, CKEC, TAST, CLDT, CLNY, EXE, CUTR, DAC, DPM, TRAK, DCTH, DMD, PLOW, DTSI, DCO, LONG, ENOC, FN, FNGN, FAC, GEOI, LOPE, GTAT, HALO, HOLX, HPP, IPHS, IIJI, IPAS, IRWD, ISIS, LLNW, LXU, MKL, MWE, MR, MHGC, OAS, PKY, PCLN, PKT, QNST, RAX, SNTS, SZYM, BID, SSNC, STXS, SNHY, SRZ, SHO, SYKE, TWGP, TWTC, EGY, VVUS, WMS Tuesday, Nov 8, 2011 Before: AAON, ASTM, ACHN, AER, AYR, AMRI, ARGN, ARCC, BIOS, CRZO, CASM, CV, CAAS, COBR, CGEN, CORE, CVU, DOVR, SSP, EBIX, EMCI, ES, EF, XIDE, ASUR, FOSL, FTEK, GEL, HL, HFC, INSM, IFF, IRDM, JRCC, VLCCF, KNOL, LCAPA, LINTA, LSTZA, LCUT, LMIA, MMYT, MPW, MDSO, MEMS, BKR, MITI, LABL, NGS, TNDM, NXST, NEXS, NGPC, PTEK, PGR, RDA, RJET, DFZ, RNO, ROK, ROSE, SATC, SMG, LEDS, SUG, TMS, WPC, WRES, WLB, ZBRA During: AAT, BOFI, BBEP. CNTY After: ARAY, ACTS, ATVI, ALSK, ALEX, AIQ, DOX, ANDE, AIS, BOX, NILE, BEAT, CBOU, ENV, CHKM, GRRF, CHDX, CLNE, COKE, CODI, CPA, DIOD, ESE, ESSX, EZPW, FALC, FC, GCOM, GSS, GCFB, HCKT, HIMX, INFI, IGT, IL, IIN, KW, LGND, LIME, LEDR, MDR, NC, NP, NNI, NCT, OME, ORCC, PAAS, MALL, PRMW, PULS, RAH, MKTG, ROVI, RBCN, SLXP, SGI, SVM, STEC, LVB, STRL, SWS, TTWO, TRNX, PANL, UR, PRTS, VLNC, VIAS, WTW, XRM, HOGS Wednesday, Nov 9, 2011 Before: AH, ARX, AG, AGYS, AMRC, ADY, ASH, BIOC, ABV, CSC, CTCM, DF, AGIT, ENB, ENER, EPM, FSYS, GGP, GM, GEN, GNVC, HDNG, HBC, IAG, JAG, KELYA, KITD, LIZ, M, MFB, NEWT, OMG, PIKE, RL, PSMT, RDNT, ROLL, SODA, SLW, SBLK, STON, SUSS, TKLC, TRGL, UPG, VRML, WEN During: ADK, ELP, CZZ, GGB, GRVY, KCAP After: JOBS, NDN, AXAS, ACAD, AAP, ANW, ARCL, AHT, ATO, BIOF, BPAX, CJES, CDR, CAST, CSCO, COMV, CTWS, CWCO, DVOX, EGAS, ENS, FLT, FTK, GCA, GMCR, GVP, HEK, HEB, JMBA, LGF, LUB, MCZ, MAKO, MNTX, MATR, MBI, MEDH, OMPI, ONVI, OPNT, QUAD, RKT, SSRI, SMT, SMTX, SPAN, SPRD, SVN, SYUT, TTGT, TTEK, TACT, TAT, VGZ, ZN Thursday, Nov 10, 2011 Before: ACM, AMCX, APU, AUQ, AZK, BITA, CAE, CECE, GIB, DSCO, EDGR, EGT, ENG, DEG, FLO, GFN, GFI, HII, INFU, KSS, KLIC, LPTH, MMS, VIVO, NEI, PBH, SFUN, KOS, SPH, ELOS, TNK, THI, UGI, VSCP, WD, During: TCHC, PZG After: SSRX, CRMB, ACTV, AL, ABTL, BONE, BODY, BRKS, BSQR, CVO, HTHT, BORN, COGO, COSI, CPL, CYDE, DAR, HILL, FRF, GNMK, GSB, GSIG, HOKU, HMIN, KTEC, KIOR, MATW, MSCC, MCP, JWN, NTN, NVDA, PSTR, TK, WRLS, TPCG, USHS, DIS, WX Friday, Nov 11, 2011 Before: BAM, DHI, HYGS, TREE During: SDT After: AT, ANCI, TINY
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! () = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.
DISCLAIMER
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Prior to the execution of any securities trade, you should always consult with your broker or other financial advisor. The positions given and described by the Bastiat Group, Inc. and its employees and affiliates are for educational purposes only. The Bastiat Group, Inc. and its members, employees, agents, consultants, analysts, representatives, content and/or service providers, affiliates, subsidiaries, successors and assigns (hereinafter collectively, “The Bastiat Indemnities”) assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Go to http://www.tonihansen.com/disclaimer.html for a complete disclaimer. (c) 1998-2011 All information presented is property of TradingFromMainStreet.com and Bastiat Group, Inc. PO Box 330 Roland, IA 50236 , USA To unsubscribe or change subscriber options visit: http://www.aweber.com/z/r/LEwsrOzMtCxMnBwcTCzstEa0jIwMjAyMzJw=
