Bulls need to show fresh power this week

Monday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock indexes and gold prices, and a weaker U.S. dollar.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Some near-term technical damage has been inflicted in the U.S. stock indexes, with Friday’s bearish weekly low closes. The indexes are seeing a short-covering bounce early Monday. However, if the U.S. stock indexes see follow-through selling pressure this week, then more serious chart damage would be inflicted to suggest at least near-term market tops are in place.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today, on short covering. Bulls need to show fresh power this week.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,093.20 and then at Friday’s low of 1,186.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,103.00 and then at 1,108.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,811.00 and then at 1,820.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,800.00 and then at Friday’s low of 1,789.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,200 and then more stops just below support at 10,175. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at 10,275. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,171

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, on corrective pullbacks from recent gains. Bulls last week gained upside near-term technical momentum but need to show more power this week to keep it.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 10/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 22/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 25/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
119 15/32–second pivot point resistance
119 5/32–first pivot point resistance
119 3/32–previous day’s high
118 27/32–previous day’s close
118 25/32–pivot point
118 22/32–100-day moving average
118 15/32–first pivot point support
118 13/32–previous day’s low
118 5/32–4-day moving average
118 3/32–second pivot point support
117 6/32–9-day moving average
116 10/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.26.0 and then at Friday’s high of 118.01.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.19.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 6/32–second pivot point resistance
118 2/32–first pivot point resistance
118 1/32–previous day’s high
117 29/32–previous day’s close
117 28/32–pivot point
117 24/32–first pivot point support
117 23/32–previous day’s low
117 18/32–second pivot point support
117 18/32–4-day moving average
117 3/32–100-day moving average
117 1/32–9-day moving average
116 13/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. A minor bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.48 and then at Friday’s high of 78.73. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.20 and then at 78.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on short covering. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4128 and then at 1.4100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4193 and then at 1.4250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4240. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,104.00 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,092.20 and then at $1,088.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,106.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have faded badly recently. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $73.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering bounces. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently.