I had 11,900 as a buy in Dow Cash. Quite frankly, I was happy with the 500 to 600 pt profits on those buys.
The shorts which I initiated between 12,400 and 12,500 have all been blown out with my buy stops.
I believe we are over done to the buy side, but for now I am flat stock indexes.
Perhaps this Summer rally, punishing all those whose plan was “Sell in May and Go Away”.. is finished. We are in the beginning of July. Most traders will be evening up as we head into August. In general, I try not to trade in August when it comes to the stock indexes.
As for the grains, I want to sell rallies in CZ, I look for a bounce, potentially in SX, especially if we can get a run up to the $14.00 level. We have been mired in a one dollar range in the beans for about 7 months.
When we break out of this sideways range, it will be impressive. I am a buyer of dips in the beans. However, I do not want to fall in love with my position.
Buy on a dip, risk 15 cents looking to make 45 to 60.
I like adding to my long CZ 5.00 put position. I bought some of those a while back for less than 5 cents. Today they are trading around 10. If the wheels come off this corn market, those could be worth 75 cents to a dollar.
Tomorrow is Unemployment. It seems to me, although I am a skeptic, that perhaps the jobs info was better than expected, and therefore was leaked. This short covering rally leads me to believe that the rumor mills may have priced in a better than expected jobs number tomorrow at 730 AM CST.
How to play it? I would say don’t. However, if you must, have a sell order 100 points higher and a buy order 100 pts below the settlement we have today. Dow futures settled at 12,677 on its high. Have a resting sell order at 12,800. Ditto below, have a buy order down at 12,500 or 12,550. Look to catch the opposite wave of what ever the first panic move is after that number is released.
That’s about it. Once again, we have seen the value of stops protecting us from falling into deep love with our opinions.