Chartwhiz Futures Outlook: 9.14.10
Dec Gold: Gold prices traded mixed on Monday as the Bears struggled to retain control of the recent corrective turn. The market settled marginally higher at 12471 on the day and held the 20 DMA which prompted a reverse of the minor 5-day downtrend in the overnight session and a Bullish outlook on today’s session.
Today’s expected Gap open higher will provide support to buy against at 12565-12545 X and 12510-12471 XX ranges. Dips holding the Gap will pave the way to retest record highs at 12647-12648 XX Resistance. A break to new highs will extend Bull moves to the Dec contract’s record high at 12675-12706 XXX Resistance.
Sellers can scalp lightly against listed X and XX Resistance zones to capitalize on any dips that occur. A test and fail of the current record high at 12648 XX will leave last week’s reversal Doji intact, alerting longs to bail and offering a solid shorting opportunity for a significant downswing in the days ahead. Otherwise, trade back below 12471 Settlement today shifts gears to the downside targeting 12430-12400 XXX Support to Sept lows at 12379.
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Oct Natural Gas: Natural gas prices staged rallies for 2-straight sessions with current action developing a 4-day uptrend channel. Overnight action is higher with the 4000 level in close proximity and a Bullish outlook above the 3900 Pivot level. Buyers can get in on dips against 3940-3900 X Support range and look to cover at 3985-4000 X Resistance while trailing Stops for moves to 4035 XX Resistance. A punch through 4035 opens the door to a Bull thrust to 4100 XXX up to 4130-4160 XXXX extension target.
On the downside, failures against 3985-4000 X Resistance offers moderate shorting opportunities for a pullback targeting 3940-3900 X Support. Trade below 3900 is Bearish only on short term intra-day action for a corrective sell off to 3850-3840 XX and 3800 XXX Support levels. Trade or a close below 3800 fully neutralizes the Bull outlooks with bearish implication in the days ahead.
Oct Crude: Crude oil briefly topped 7800 on Monday on strong follow through buying from last week’s breakout rally from 7550 before moderate profit taking kicked in to generate a close at 7719. Prices gained 74 cents on the day. The market saw consolidation trade overnight between the 50 DMA at 7635 and the 200 DMA at 7740 generating a Mixed to Higher bias today.
Dips can be bought into against 7675-7635 X Support for scalps to 7719-7750 X Resistance. Trade above 7750 is expected to renew Bullish momentum sparking rallies back to 7800-7804 XX Resistance and likely to attain XXX Resistance at 7840-7850. Stabilizing trade above the 7800 level brings the 7900-8000 range into play this week.
On the downside, sellers can scalp rejections against 7719-7750 X Resistance using the 7675-7635 X Support range for a target. Trade below 7635 alerts for a short term bearish shift to 7600 XX to 7570-7550 XXX Support targets. A punch through 7550 triggers drives back below last week’s breakout levels with a target range at 7500-7460 XXXX.
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Oct Cracks: Cracks are pulling opposite in the overnight session with Gas lower and Heat higher ahead of Tuesday’s pit session. Ho/Rb is sharply lower as a result of the pull and biased to the downside today with selling opportunities against the Gap open lower at 1500-1485 X to 1450-1420 XX Resistance zones.
The Gas Crack is looking at a sideways to higher bias after overnight selling halted at the 22-day uptrend line at 560-550 XX Support. We’re expecting trade to fluctuate from 550 to 625 with scalping opportunities on both sides. Upside trade above 617-625 XX Pivot Resistance is Bullish on intra-day action targeting 645-667 XXX Resistance.
Failures against 617-625 XX Pivot Resistance alerts for continued pressure back against 560-550 XX Support. Trade breaking 550 renews Bearish forces next targeting 535 XXX Support with solid chances to sweep to 507-500 XXXX extension target.
The Heat Crack bias is Bullish with overnight action holding the 1180 Pivot after yesterday’s recovery action from early weekly drives to 1120. Buy dips against X and XX Support levels today with trade above Monday’s 1233 high setting sights on 1250 XX to 1290-1315 XXX Resistance targets.
The expected turnover is below the 1180 Pivot which should press the market to the 22-day uptrend line at 1150-1140 XXX Support. Drives below 1140 will gun for the weekly low at 1120 to 1100 XXXX bear extension target.
Dec E-mini SP: S&P futures blasted to 1119 on Monday off a Gap open higher into the new week well above the 200 DMA for the Dec contract at 1104. The market closed up 11 handles at 1116 basis the Dec contract. The trend is up for 5-days, however, the Bulls have run into headwinds against structured Resistance above at the 3Q highs at 1123-1125. That said, overnight action has put in a potential double top at 1119-1120 X Resistance generating a Mixed to Lower bias today.
We’re expecting choppy consolidation with weight to the downside using a selling approach with target range at 1109-1104 XX and XXX Supports. Trade below 1104 violates the weekly Gap and triggers Bear drives to 1099-1096 XXXX extension range.
Upside action holding above the 1114 Pivot into the primary session open can be scalped by the Bulls using 1119-1120 X Resistance to cover. Trade above 1120 triggers the next leg up into the 1123-1125 XX Resistance target were we anticipate more selling to come in. Trade surpassing 1125 is a strong indication a sustainable Bull leg will develop initially targeting today’s XXX at 1128-1130, then working the 1135 to 1150 range in the coming days and weeks.
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