Chartwhiz: Futures Technical Outlook: 9.27.10
Nov Crude Oil: Crude oil staged a solid Bull thrust on Friday to post gains for a third consecutive session and close out the week strong at 7650. Friday’s session added $1.18 to the 3-day streak. The market is in a short term daily uptrend but longer term resistance above may cap advances this week, therefore our outlook for Monday’s session is Mixed. Trade above 7700 will favor further advances but with selling expected to kick in within the 7735 to 7835 range this week.
Sellers can scalp against the 7690-7700 X Resistance range initially using tight Stops above 7710. Short positions can be taken against both XX and XXX Resistance zones with 10-15 cent Stop losses suggested. Use 7650-7635 X Support for initial objectives. Trade below 7635 is expected to spark profit taking to the lower objectives at 7600-7595 XX Pivot Support to 7570-7540 XXX Support.
On the upside, buyers can scalp against 7650-7635 X Support initially using 7690-7700 X Resistance to cover. Long positions can comfortably be taken against both XX and XXX Support ranges today also using 10-15 cent Stop losses. Trade above 7700 triggers another round of rallies to the 7735-7750 XX and 7800-7840 XXX Resistance targets where all longs should scale out today.
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Nov Cracks: Both cracks trended down last week off of their spike highs attained last Tuesday with Heat falling sharply on Friday while Gas followed with moderate losses. Both are trading lower in the overnight Globex session with a Mixed to Bearish bias for Monday’s session.
The Heat Crack is set to open lower into the pit session with shorting opportunities seen against 1365-1380 X and 1400 XX Pivot Resistance areas. If selling sustains today, targets are placed at 1330-1325 XX and 1300 XXX. On the upside, a flip above the 1400 XX Pivot Resistance is likely to shift the intra-day tone to moderately Bullish sparking short covering rallies into the 1435-1465 XXX target Resistance range. Buyers can also scalp against listed Supports using 5 cent Stop losses.
The Gas Crack may catch a bid off of the 30-day uptrend line at 470-466 X Support but rallies should be contained to the 500-520 XX Pivot Resistance range where sellers can look to scale into short positions. Trade below 466 will generate pressure targeting 450 XX and 430 XXX Support points. On the upside, trade above 520 triggers short covering rallies aiming for 545-565 XXX target Resistance.
Oct Natural Gas: Natural gas prices fell sharply on Friday after the Bulls failed to defend the 4000 level. The market turned for the session closing down 13.8 cents at 3881 and Gapped open lower into Sunday/Monday setting a Bearish outlook today.
Rallies can be sold into against all listed X’s until the Bulls can overtake the weekly Pivot at 3940. Failed rallies into today’s Gap at 3825-3880 containing X and XX Resistance are expected to pave the way to challenge 2010 lows at 3700-3693 X and 3620-3600 XX Support targets with a chance to flush to 3550 XXX.
On the upside, buyers should look for potential double bottom scenarios against 3700-3693 X and 3620-3600 XX Supports using the 3800 to 3900 range to cover. A flip above 3900 will spark a test of 3930-3940 XXX Pivot/Weekly Pivot Resistance but only trade above 3940 negates the Bear bias for another shot at 4000.
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Dec Gold: Gold prices soared to new record highs for a second straight week attaining the 13000 mark with an all-time high posted at 13016 on Friday. The market closed on a record settlement at 12981 with small gains for the session. The weekly and daily trends are up with a Bullish outlook today, however, with RSI running overbought, Bulls should be on guard for potential corrective sweeps. Maintaining dips above 12970 X Pivot Support favors new highs with a punch through 13016 setting sights on 13060 XX and 13105-13130 XXX Resistance targets.
On the downside, there is a potential double top in the overnight session at the record highs at 13000-13016 X Resistance that can be short scalped against. Trade slipping below the 12970 Pivot is likely to generate a round of corrective pullbacks to 12930 XX Support at the 10-day uptrend. Failures to regain 12970-12981 from there jeopardizes the 10-day uptrend with additional drives to 12906-12875 XXX Support next in line.
Dec E-Mini S&P: Bull trending forces maintain control of the market after last week’s corrective slide held the breakout Support at the summer highs at 1123. Prices rallied back strong on Friday to close on new 3Q highs at 1143-1145. Overnight action hit the 1150 mark and is trading slightly higher ahead of the pit open with a Mixed bias today as profit taking may kick in off of 1150.
Dips that hold the 1140 X Support level will keep upward pressure on and continue to challenge 1148-1150 XX Resistance. A punch through 1150 triggers another leg up to 1154-1156 XXX target Resistance. If we fail to hold 1140, buyers can cautiously trade against lower XX and XXX Support ranges.
On the downside, sellers can short additional rejection from 1148-1150 XX Resistance with a drop below 1140 X Support setting targets to cover at 1135 XX Pivot Support to 1132-1123 XXX congestion Support. A break or a close below 1123 alerts for a solid correction developing in the days ahead aiming at the 1108-1107 unfilled breakaway gap.
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