CRUDE OIL: The market trend and momentum remain down with recent price action continuing to challenge the 3983-3940 gap to an adjusted lower target range at 3900-3865. Sell rallies today initially against 4080-4100 PIVOT Resistance, but overall maintaining a bear bias until 4255 is violated. Follow thru below 3840 today opens up for extensions into the 3800-3600 range.
Trade that holds XXX Support at 3900-3865 alerts for a short covering reversal, but only trade above 4080-4100 X Resistance represents short term strength that will likely challenge listed Resistance areas within the 4155-4255 range. Key breakout above 4255 sustains any upward drives aiming at the 4350-4500 range.
HEAT CRACK: Monday’s reversal off of the 1900-2000 highs for 2009 puts the heat crack into a short term downtrend with an overall sell rallies bias on trade below 1800-1825. Heading into the primary session, trade is bearish below the PIVOT at 1670 with moves below 1600 accelerating drives to 1555-1543 XX down to 1500-1480 XXX Support areas. Trade above the PIVOT at 1670 signals short term strength but look to lock in profits and/or reverse against 1700-1718 XX and 1800-1825 XXX Resistance areas.
RBOB CRACK: Near term momentum is down as the gas crack breaks the recent uptrend. Maintaining trade below 835 PIVOT to 865 X Resistance keeps the outlook negative and alerts to sell rallies while targeting today’s listed Support areas at 770, 700 and 620-595. Trade above 865 is expected to generate mild short covering into the 900-1000 range. Key breakout above 1025 today triggers a solid run back to the 1060-1100 range.
NATURAL GAS: Despite Monday’s sharp reversal, the market remains in a 14 D v TL CHNL with the top of the channel crossing at 4640-4670 X Resistance today. Trade above 4670 today is needed to confirms the reversal and trigger a breakout with initial objectives at the Jan breakdown at 4740 XX to the 4 W MA at 4800 XXX Resistance areas. The extended outlook on a breakout projects prices into the 4860-5000 range in the days ahead.
Failures to take out 4640-4670 X Resistance alerts for a turn back down with PIVOT Support at 4500-4470 as the initial objective. Only trade below 4500-4470 today signals weakness and a return to the 4400-4355 range. Key breakdown below 4355 XXX is expected to retest the weekly low at 4280 and potentially drop into the 4200-4000 range over the course of the week.
