Riding the U.S. dollar waves

Probably no market is more important to more markets than the U.S. dollar, which had been making a surprisingly strong upward run. But is the tide turning?

-Despite the economic turmoil, the value of the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) gained ground against the other major currencies because economic conditions elsewhere were worse than U.S. statistics, a move that a VantagePoint predicted long-term moving average crossover identified in September.

-U.S. economic statistics continued to weaken into November while economies elsewhere appeared to be stabilizing, suggesting U.S. dollar strength could fade.

-The U.S. Fed chopped short-term interest rates to only 0.25% Tuesday, another weakening influence for the dollar.

-Another VantagePoint long-term predicted moving average crossover had already forecast a downtrend in the USDX long before the Fed rate cut prompted a dollar slide.

-VantagePoint’s neural index and predicted short-term and long-term differences headed down (black arrow), providing additional clues to support a short USDX position around 86 a week ago.

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