I have to start the day with taking aim at Reuters News. Now, I get it, they have two different pieces of data here, but at first reading, this fact is hard to tell. The headlines are in bold below and right underneath each is the opening paragraph for each story.
- U.S. services sector growth cools in April: Markit
- The pace of expansion in the U.S. services sector eased from a seven-month high in April on a dip in new business growth, but hiring in the sector accelerated to its highest since June, an industry report showed on Tuesday.
- U.S. service sector growth rebounds in April: ISM survey
- The pace of growth in the U.S. services sector rose to a five-month high in April, lifted by a surge in business activity that offset a sharp decline in exports, an industry report showed on Tuesday.
Don’t they have editors any more, you know, folks whose job is to help readers clearly understand the news? Isn’t it important to understand that each survey is produced from a different source?
- The two principal producers of PMIs are Markit Group, which conducts PMIs for over 30 countries worldwide, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which conducts PMIs for the US.
At least now I am clear, but if I were one who relies on the constant short-term flow of data to formulate conclusions about the reality of the US and global economy, I would not know which way to go here. Is the US services sector doing well or not? I guess if you actually go with the numbers, forgetting about the slant, one could arrive at the conclusion that things are, well, fairly consistent, which is not bad.
- The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.8 last month from 56.5 in March.
- Financial firm Markit said its final reading of its Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector slipped to 57.4 in April.
So, there you have it, but the fun does not stop with the confusion above. We also have numbers coming out about the US trade deficit, and those numbers have the breathless media talking US GDP contraction in the first quart of this year.
- U.S. trade deficit largest since 2008 as imports surge
There is the headline, which seems dire, as a larger trade deficit usually equates to lower GDP, right? However, looking inside the numbers suggests that the US economic picture might not be all that bad, relative to the trade deficit.
- Exports increased 0.9 percent to $187.8 billion in March.
- Exports to the European Union rose 8.6 percent, with those to Germany reaching their highest level since October 2008.
- Exports to Canada and Mexico – the main U.S. trading partners – were up in March. Exports to China increased 13.6 percent, while imports from that country jumped 31.6 percent.
So, in actuality, the US is exporting a whole lot of goods everywhere, and the issue is a big jump in imports from China. Conclusion: US manufacturing is not falling apart, nor is Chinese manufacturing.
The price of oil, as well, is not collapsing, as the Middle East remains a hot spot.
- Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, pushing North Sea Brent and U.S. light crude to 2015 highs, after protests stopped crude flows to the eastern Libyan oil port of Zueitina, hampering exports.
I still say, the recent jump in prices is pushing the upper limit, as the fundamentals of oil pricing are still pointing to lower prices. Speculation …
Finally, my railing today takes me to this: Forget about Big Brother, Big Neighbor is here.
A few months back, Nando (my wife) and I were sitting in the living room of our friends. Directly in front of us was a large picture window looking out into the dark of night. Sitting there and looking out of the window, I mused aloud about the new consumer-drone exhibit at the Las Vegas show. We all had quite the lively discussion after I put forward the idea that it was possible for their neighbor to own a drone capable of hovering outside their un-curtained window, watching us as we sat in their living room, and we would not even know …
- It was the blinking lights outside the 10th-story window of her San Jose, California, condo that startled Elsvette Buenaventura from her bed last year. When she drew back the curtain, a small drone hovered a few feet away. In the days that followed, it returned at least three more times.
Technology is great, but for all the great things it brings us, it also opens a door to a darker realm, one in which bad people use technology to do bad things.
- Creeps Embrace a New Tool: Peeping Drones
Sheesh! Didn’t anyone in a position of protecting the people see this coming?
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
