Thursday, January 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker gold prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity traders, keep a close eye on the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) for a good gauge on the overall trend in raw commodity futures prices. While it’s true that trading in many commodity futures markets has turned choppy, the near-term price trend in the CCI remains up. CCI prices are presently in a 13-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. A drop in the CCI index price below 450.00 would be a solid clue that the raw commodity sector is in some serious trouble.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near steady to weaker in quieter early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as gentle price uptrends remain in place on the daily bar charts.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,135.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,129.30. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 1,145.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,147.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,126.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,887.00 and then at this week’s contract high of 1,899.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,865.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,849.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,600 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 10,565. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s contract high of 10,655 and then at 10,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,516
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in bonds and notes.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 24/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 6/32 and then at 116 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 24/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32 — lifetime high
122 21/32 — Previous Month’s high set
118 23/32 — 100-day moving average
117 18/32 — second pivot point resistance
117 2/32 — previous day’s high
116 24/32 — first pivot point resistance
116 8/32 — pivot point
116 — 18-day moving average
115 30/32 — previous day’s close
115 28/32 — 4-day moving average
115 24/32 — previous day’s low
115 20/32 — 9-day moving average
115 14/32 — first pivot point support
114 30/32 — second pivot point support
114 26/32 — previous month’s low
110 3/32 — lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.16.5 and then at this week’s high of 116.27.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.08.5 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 115.28.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32 — lifetime high
119 31/32 — previous month’s high
117 2/32 — second pivot point resistance
117 — 100-day moving average
116 27/32 — previous day’s high
116 22/32 — first pivot point resistance
116 16/32 — pivot point
116 11/32 — previous day’s close
116 9/32 — 4-day moving average
116 9/32 — previous day’s low
116 6/32 — 18-day moving average
116 4/32 — first pivot point support
116 1/32 — 9-day moving average
115 30/32 — second pivot point support
114 28/32 — previous month’s low
110 29/32 — lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today on tepid short covering in a bear market. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.17 and then at Wednesday’s high of 77.32. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.83 and then at this week’s low of 76.74. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.66. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading, on mild profit-taking pressure. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4455 and then at this week’s low of 1.4409. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4555 and then at this week’s high of 1.4577. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4399. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is slightly lower in early dealings today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer. Gold prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,141.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,145.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,133.00 and then at $1,125.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,134.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $80.36 and then just above resistance at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.56 and then more sell stops just below support at $79.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.04. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Traders will scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
