Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price 50-day SMA is heading toward a bullish “Golden Cross” above the 200-day SMA this week. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11.
Stocks gapped higher at the open and added to gains to score a new 5-year high at 10:21 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The market surrendered early gains by noon. Stocks spent the balance of the day choppy and mixed but still managed to close mostly higher, although just slightly higher.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,520.33) finished up 0.06%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.38%.
Bullish momentum appears to be stalling out. Although the S&P 500 rose modestly so far in February, popular daily price momentum oscillators have moved lower and are showing bearish momentum divergences. For example, RSI(14) is now 67.39, down from 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9) also peaked on 1/29/13 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks on 2/13/13. MACD crossed below its signal line on 2/4/13 and remains below it. Momentum is a leading indicator of price.
“BofA’s proprietary measure of investor sentiment is clocking in at extreme levels. According to the firm’s Bull & Bear Index, which tracks sentiment using indicators like hedge fund market exposure, fund flows, long-only investor positioning and so forth, investors are more bullish than they were in 99% of periods since 2002.”–Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1524.69, high of 2/13/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1495.02, low of 2/4/2013
1489.46, low of 1/24/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1463.01, 50-day SMA
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1404.96, 200-day SMA
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price may be consolidating losses after hitting an “oversold” low at 115.51 on 2/1/13, while various technical oscillators show some loss of downside momentum. TLT turned systematically bearish on 1/25/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Support 115.51, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 117.85, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bearish on 2/12/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Some loss of downside momentum is evident since IEF hit its recent low at 105.56 on 2/1/13, however. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 106.45, 107.35, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/14/13, thereby turning systematically bullish. Price peaked on 1/25/13, turned neutral on 2/1/13, and fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 2/7/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish again on 1/17/13 when it whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12. Absolute price has been in a medium-term downtrend since peaking at 123.44 on 12/6/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below 7-months lows on 2/12/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is heading toward a bullish “Golden Cross” above the 200-day SMA this week. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price appears to be in a neutral trading range, at best, as it whipsaws around its 50-day and 200-day SMAs since 10/19/12. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 29.71, 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) appears to be in a neutral trading range, whipsawing around its 50-day and 200-day SMAs since 10/19/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.75% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.56% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
3.28% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
2.98% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
3.59% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
3.12% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.46% , HES , AMERADA HESS
4.93% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
4.16% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.14% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.91% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.76% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.55% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.77% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.32% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
1.16% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.58% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.75% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.97% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.49% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.82% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.79% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.47% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.15% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.89% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.00% , MET , METLIFE
0.67% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
1.21% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
0.69% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.91% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.32% , SNA , SNAP ON
1.64% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
1.70% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.99% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-5.80% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-4.56% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-6.58% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-4.00% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.01% , BBY , BEST BUY
-3.50% , DE , DEERE & CO
-4.75% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.64% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.72% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.26% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.03% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-1.53% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.00% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.71% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.38% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.66% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-1.50% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.12% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.48% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.43% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.10% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.93% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.68% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.01% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.16% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-1.27% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.29% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.81% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.84% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-2.91% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.12% , WAG , WALGREEN
-0.62% , IP , INTL PAPER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.06% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.97% Sweden Index, EWD
1.39% Russia MV, RSX
1.29% South Korea Index, EWY
1.14% Australia Index, EWA
0.91% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.91% Spain Index, EWP
0.90% Belgium Index, EWK
0.89% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.84% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.78% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.76% Water Resources, PHO
0.76% Germany Index, EWG
0.69% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.65% Austria Index, EWO
0.60% Italy Index, EWI
0.56% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.55% China 25 iS, FXI
0.54% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.54% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.51% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.50% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.50% European VIPERs, VGK
0.49% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.47% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.44% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.44% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.41% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.41% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.40% Energy Global, IXC
0.39% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.39% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.39% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.38% Energy DJ, IYE
0.38% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.38% France Index, EWQ
0.38% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.36% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.36% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.36% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.36% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.36% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.35% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.33% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.33% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.33% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.32% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.32% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.32% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.32% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.30% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.29% Singapore Index, EWS
0.27% South Africa Index, EZA
0.26% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.24% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.24% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.23% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.22% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.21% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.21% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.19% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.19% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.18% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.18% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.16% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.15% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.15% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.14% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.13% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.13% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.12% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% Dividend International, PID
0.11% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.10% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.09% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.09% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.07% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.07% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.05% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.03% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.02% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% Global 100, IOO
0.00% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.00% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.04% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.04% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.06% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.07% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.07% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.07% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.09% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.10% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.11% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.11% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.13% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.14% Canada Index, EWC
-0.14% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.17% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.23% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.26% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.28% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.28% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.29% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.32% India PS, PIN
-0.35% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.36% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.38% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.40% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.42% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.48% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.53% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.66% Networking, IGN
-0.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.00% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.12% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.64% Mexico Index, EWW
