CRB Commodity Price Index fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 17 months.

Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 17 months, while absolute price fell below fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke sharply below its lows of the previous 4 weeks and came very close to its 50-day SMA, although it remains slightly above its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,369.57) closed further below its 50-day SMA.

The SPX chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge on 4/5/12, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This breakdown suggests that stocks could quickly erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500.

A variety of technical indicators have been demonstrating waning bullish momentum for stocks. A downside correction or shakeout has seemed overdue, according to past norms.

Following unusually large price run ups, such as Q1 2012, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA, turning bullish again. UUP remains above its 50-day SMA, above 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has stayed above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 21.85, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/16/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/16/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.64, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA (although only slightly above now) every day since 2/11/09. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 4/11/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 4/4/12, suggesting renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.11, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/13/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell further below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/21/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.54% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.43% , NCR , NCR
2.69% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
0.68% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.21% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.30% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.17% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
4.11% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
0.58% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.41% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
1.07% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.69% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.44% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
0.39% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
1.55% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.78% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
2.49% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.92% , CB , CHUBB
2.20% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.91% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.05% , TE , TECO ENERGY
1.07% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.59% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.08% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
1.41% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.77% , C , CITIGROUP
1.35% , DD , DU PONT
0.79% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.95% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
0.57% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.60% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.36% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.45% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.77% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.27% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-0.95% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-6.34% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-7.65% , GCI , GANNETT
-3.94% , WPO , Washington Post
-2.69% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.93% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.36% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-2.08% , AVP , AVON
-1.44% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.70% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.42% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-0.22% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.99% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-4.15% , NBR , NABORS
-0.91% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.08% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.58% , EP , EL PASO
-0.53% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-2.12% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.96% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-2.53% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.16% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-3.23% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.05% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.11% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-4.15% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.85% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.11% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.24% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.86% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.91% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.55% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.54% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.43% Germany Index, EWG
1.37% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.22% Sweden Index, EWD
1.17% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.16% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.13% European VIPERs, VGK
1.12% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.05% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.98% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.96% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.95% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.85% Global 100, IOO
0.85% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.85% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.82% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.79% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.73% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.73% EAFE Index, EFA
0.69% France Index, EWQ
0.62% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.62% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.61% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.56% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.54% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.54% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.54% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.53% Dividend International, PID
0.53% Belgium Index, EWK
0.52% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.52% Austria Index, EWO
0.49% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.47% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.44% Italy Index, EWI
0.44% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.42% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.41% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.41% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.40% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.40% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.39% Australia Index, EWA
0.35% South Africa Index, EZA
0.34% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.33% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.33% India PS, PIN
0.31% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.31% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.30% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.27% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.23% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.21% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.13% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.12% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.11% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.11% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.11% Water Resources, PHO
0.11% Energy Global, IXC
0.08% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.06% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.03% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.03% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.02% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.00% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.04% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.05% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.07% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.08% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.08% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.11% Canada Index, EWC
-0.13% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.15% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.15% Spain Index, EWP
-0.15% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.18% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.19% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.22% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.23% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.24% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.29% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.30% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.31% Networking, IGN
-0.34% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.41% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.43% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.46% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.47% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.50% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.51% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.52% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.56% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.59% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.61% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.61% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.62% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.64% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.67% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.69% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.71% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.77% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.89% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.91% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.91% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.98% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.99% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.99% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.05% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.12% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.54% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.63% Russia MV, RSX