Friday, January 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The much-anticipated period of time when the commodity funds and index funds were reportedly supposed to be buying commodity futures has now passed. Most futures markets were seemingly unaffected by the supposed influx of fund money on the long side. In fact, crude oil and the grains have seen prices back off the past week while most other commodity markets have seen choppy price action. Another noteworthy observation is that it appears many commodity markets are now acting and reacting more to their own individual supply and demand fundamentals—-and less to the influences of the key outside markets that include crude oil, stock indexes and the U.S. dollar.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as gentle price uptrends remain in place on the daily bar charts. Remember that quiet and unassuming uptrends are the ones that tend to last the longest. S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term oving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,132.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,127.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week’s high of 1,147.90 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,126.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the 1,887.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,894.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,876.25 and then at 1,865.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,600 and then more stops just below support at 10,565. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s contract high of 10,672 and then at 10,700. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,516
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on more short covering. Bulls are gaining some fresh upside near-term technical momentum late this week and would gain more by producing bullish weekly high closes on Friday.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 22/32 and then at 116 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 5/32 and then at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 25/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32 — lifetime high
122 21/32 — Previous Month’s high
118 22/32 — 100-day moving average
117 29/32 — second pivot point resistance
117 11/32 — first pivot point resistance
117 3/32 — previous day’s high
116 26/32 — previous day’s close
116 18/32 — pivot point
116 6/32 — 4-day moving average
116 — first pivot point support
115 28/32 — 18-day moving average
115 25/32 — 9-day moving average
115 24/32 — previous day’s low
115 7/32 — second pivot point support
114 26/32 — previous month’s low
110 3/32 — lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.00.0 and then at 117.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.21.5 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.28.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32 — lifetime high
119 31/32 — previous month’s high
117 10/32 — second pivot point resistance
117 1/32 — first pivot point resistance
117 — 100-day moving average
116 30/32 — previous day’s high
116 23/32 — previous day’s close
116 20/32 — pivot point
116 15/32 — 4-day moving average
116 11/32 — first pivot point support
116 8/32 — previous day’s low
116 5/32 — 9-day moving average
116 4/32 — 18-day moving average
115 30/32 — second pivot point support
114 28/32 — previous month’s low
110 29/32 — lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today on short covering in a bear market. The bulls would gain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum by producing a bullish weekly high close today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.46 and then at this week’s high of 77.66. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.98 and hen at this week’s low of 76.74. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.66. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading, on more profit-taking pressure. Bulls are fading today. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4350 and then at 1.4300. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4400 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4399. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, as the U.S. dollar index is stronger. Gold prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,141.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,146.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,130.70 and then at $1,125.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,134.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $79.31 and then just above resistance at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.57 and then more sell stops just below support at $78.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.04. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Market fundamentals in the grains are starting to turn more near-term bearish.
