Commodity TRADING SCHOOL
COMMODITY TRADING SCHOOL FUTURES MARKET SUMMARY 01/11/10
SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 01/12/10
8:30 AM: US INTERNATIONAL TRADE (-$35B)
1:00 PM: US 3 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($40B)
DATA RESULTS 01/11/10
ALCOA EARNINGS RELEASE (0.01 PER SHARE VS. 0.06 PER SHARE)
US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US 30 YEAR FUTURES traded with negative bias in narrow session. The long end of the Treasury yield curve came under pressure from the ongoing specter of inflation and another late session rebound in equities as the financial sector recovered. Early pressure hit fixed income after China reported double digit growth in its import and exports readings.
The complex is likely to remain quiet going into the middle of the week as $84 billion of Treasuries come to market this week. Markets may begin to price in some upside movement if technical supports hold and belief that the Federal Reserve may reintroduce forms of asset repurchase programs.
Technically, March futures could be setting up to stage a recovery to 115-30 as daily RSI appears to be pricing in some short covering as uncertainty stemming from earnings and a lack of overall market direction.
US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US EQUITIES continue to trade with any conviction as markets await the beginning of earnings season. Alcoa, the aluminum producer and earnings kickoff posted weaker than expected earnings (0.01 EPS vs. 0.06 EPS). Pressure on earnings and margins was due to rebounding energy and currency costs. Markets fell from the best levels overnight as the US dollar weakened and commodity prices retreated. A late day rebound to slightly positive levels was led by a late session recovery in financials and tentative confidence in recovery and risk tolerance. The international picture appears more optimistic as Caterpillar-the heavy equipment maker- boosted the highest gains on the Dow Industrials.
This was measured by the VIX (volatility index), which traded to a 20 month low. Market participants are likely to remain quiet as catalysts remain sparse ahead of the US retail sales report and the major contributors to the earnings outlook start to release data and the end of this week.
Technically, March S&P futures appear ready to stage a profit taking pullback which could set up a pullback to 1132.00 by Thursday. A break of this level should find initial support level at 1126.00, with 1118.00 forming a significant support level. Upside target for contract sets up at 1152.00
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US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CHANGE |
|
|
US H0 (US 30 YRS) |
115-04 |
115-19 |
114-28 |
115-06 |
-9/32nds |
|
SP H0 (S&P 500) |
1146.30 |
1146.80 |
1138.00 |
1142.50 |
+0.90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
PLEASE VOICE YOUR MARKET, OPTIONS, THOUGHTS, AND QUESTIONS. EMAIL TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Commodity Trading School, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
