Commodity TRADING SCHOOL
COMMODITY TRADING SCHOOL FUTURES MARKET SUMMARY 09/21/09
SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 09/22/09
10:00 AM US FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX
1:00 PM US 2 YEAR NOTE AUCTION
FOMC MEETING BEGINS
DATA RESULTS 09/21/09
US LEADING INDICATORS (+ 0.6% VS. + 0.7 %)
US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US TREASURIES posted a mixed session on Monday. Markets were generally quiet ahead of this week’s Treasury auctions of US 2, 5 and 7 year notes. Traders were also not inclined to make any dramatic moves ahead of the 2 day FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings as well as the global G 20 economic forum scheduled for this weekend.
The short end of the yield curve held up relatively well in light trading as traders squared up some short positions from last week. Additional buying interest came in ahead of expectations of continued strong demand for shorter term US debt as ongoing global concerns regarding economic recovery fuels demand for secure debt even in the wake of the US Dollar’s continued erosion. U.S. 10 and 30 year futures closed the session slightly weaker as early pressure on the US equity markets subsided from stronger pullbacks in stocks, particularly during the Asian session. Markets should likely remain range bound ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting announcements.
Technically, December 30 year futures appear to be trading in a narrowing channel, which appears to be signaling a potential breakout, at least for the near term, is forming. December 30 years should test 118-11 as an initial support, with key down side targets at 117-14 and 116-21. Resistance sets up at 120-23 and 121-18.
US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US EQUITIES rebounded off early pressure from overseas concerns to close the session at slightly lower price levels. Markets were lifted from the doldrums by the reliable catalyst of Merger and Acquisition activity. Dell Computer announced its plans to acquire Perot Systems for $3.9 billion. The announcement lifted the NASDAQ into positive territory and acted as a support mechanism to lift the other major indices from their worst levels of the session. Nearly every major market sector came under pressure today as traders sought to lock in profit in sectors which have seen the most recent gains. Financials, energies, and materials stocks gave the most back today as commodities staged a steep pullback, fueled by a rebound in the value of the US dollar. Equity traders focus appears ready to turn to earnings and the notion that they may not be able to offer any support to the rationale for recent gains in the equity markets. Volume overall was light in the session ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.
Technically, December S&P futures broke through near term support at 1056.00. Next level of significant support looks to be setting up at 1047.00, with a break of this level suggesting a attempt to break out of the market’s recent trading range and set up for a test of 1034.00 on the downside. Resistance sets up at 1068.75.
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
CHANGE |
|
US Z9 (US 30 YRS) |
119-12 |
119-31 |
118-25 |
119-01 |
-8/32nds |
|
SP Z9 (S&P 500) |
1054.20 |
1062.70 |
1052.00 |
1060.40 |
-.60 |
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
PLEASE EMAIL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Commodity Trading School, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
