Commodity TRADING SCHOOL
COMMODITY TRADING SCHOOL FUTURES MARKET SUMMARY 11/10/09
SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 11/11/09
US HOLIDAY- VETERAN’S DAY- NO MAJOR ECONOMIC RELEASES
DATA RESULTS 11/10/09
US 10 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($25B) BID TO COVER 2.81, YIELD AWARDED 3.470%
US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US TREASURIES traded mixed for a second session. Tuesday’s record auction of $25 billion of US 10 year notes failed to hit one out of the park as compared to Monday’s record bid to cover for the 3 year note auction. Bid to cover was a respectable 2.81, with awarded yield coming in at 3.470. Treasuries fell to their worst levels of the session after the auction results.
The complex had been nearly a full basis point higher from Monday’s close earlier after ratings agency Fitch reported that the UK economy was in the lead with regards to possibly losing its AAA credit rating on its sovereign debt. This concern fueled a run to alternative fixed income. Gains waned as the US dollar retreated, supporting equities and risk tolerance. Thursday will see the last of the US auctions for the week as $16B of US 30 year debt comes to market.
Technically, US 30 year futures tested and failed at resistance. Based on this hold, market appears poised to break 118-00 and test 117-19. Downside support remains at 117-01. Resistance for contract also remains intact at 119-16.
US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US EQUITIES traded in a tight range on Tuesday, holding on to the majority of Monday’s gain, but meeting cautious sentiment with regards to pushing through to new highs. Disappointing earnings from key financial institutions and calls to possibly downgrade UK debt held back some of the risk tolerance which seemed to drive equities to their highest closing levels of 2009 on Monday.
Stocks came under pressure in the overnight after a reading on German consumer confidence came in weaker than expected. Equities traded in their tightest range in nearly three weeks. The only major fundamental release today was the release of a sweeping financial regulation reform package sponsored by US Senator Chris Dodd. The bill proposed creating a new federal agency with the task of overseeing risk taken on by financial institutions, as well as new banking regulators and consumer protection agencies. Traders appeared unable to decide how to vote with their dollars regarding the possible changes to the financial regulation landscape.
Early weakness in equities came from follow through from European indexes, which retreated after German consumer confidence came in weaker than expected.
Technically, little has changed for outlook on December S&P contract. The upside breakout target remains at 1103.00, while a lack of further upside momentum should result in a pullback to near term support at 1079.00.
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
CHANGE |
|
US Z9 (US 30 YRS) |
118-15 |
119-11 |
118-04 |
118-14 |
-2/32nds |
|
SP Z9 (S&P 500) |
1088.00 |
1094.50 |
1085.20 |
1091.90 |
+0.20 |
|
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|
|
|
|
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Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
PLEASE EMAIL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
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