The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,305.44) fell 10.70 points or 0.81% on Monday, July 18, 2011. SPX broke down below the lows of the previous 12 trading days.
SPX fell 47.78 points or 3.53% from its 1,353.22 closing price high on 7/7/11 to Monday’s close at 1,305.44.
SPX whipsawed back below its widely-watched 50-day SMA. SPX broke down below its 20-day SMA. SPX closed below the 50% retracement mark of the previous rally. SPX price momentum indicators regained some downside momentum. As I wrote yesterday, “For the medium term, a complex Dow Theory Secondary Reaction probably is still unfolding during the historically weak, “Sell in May, and go away” season.”
Trading volume on the NYSE fell 6% below the previous day’s pace. Volume was 7% below its trailing 200-day SMA. Rising volume confirms the price direction, while low and falling volume indicate relatively poor demand for stocks and raises doubts about the significance of any rally attempt.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/18/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks, confirming a medium-term uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.11% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
4.67% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
2.66% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.32% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.89% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
3.22% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.00% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.40% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.48% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.24% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
2.75% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.87% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
2.43% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
1.05% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.89% , VFC , VF
0.83% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.16% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.25% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.47% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
1.69% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.55% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% , AN , AUTONATION
0.42% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.08% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
0.09% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.17% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-23.00% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-2.03% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-8.03% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-4.95% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-2.43% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.06% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.17% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.13% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-0.99% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.20% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.09% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.85% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-3.89% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-7.65% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.86% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.51% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-2.67% , TLAB , TELLABS
-2.45% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.17% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.46% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.25% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-1.24% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.10% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.39% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.50% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.06% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.27% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.39% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-4.38% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-2.87% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.87% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.18% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.04% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
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9 Major U.S. Stock Sectors
ranked in order of long-term relative strength
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 7/12/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price rose to test its yearly highs on 7/7/11 but failed and turned down.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/14/11, suggesting a minor recovery. But OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming its preexisting bearish long-term major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) suddenly reversed to the downside on 7/14/11–this just after IWM/SPY rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/13/11. Although IWM/SPY appears uncertain about the short term, longer term the trend remains bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) has been stuck in a downside correction since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. Support 32.35, 32.23, 31.65, 31.46. Resistance 33.42, 34.83, and 35.58.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been trading trendless, choppy/sideways for most of the past 2 months. Many day-to-day reversals make Oil a risky market to trade at this time. Long term, as long as USO holds above its low at 35.14 on 6/27/11, the major trend might turn back up. Support 36.93 and 35.14. Resistance 38.98, 40.74, and 46.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/18/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money. Support: 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative (to the Gold bullion ETF) Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a short-term bounce. GDX fell below 27-month lows on 6/17/11, which was a bearish indication for the long term. The Ratio is still down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a medium-term uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation. Support 37.72, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a short-term minor uptrend. The Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11 and fell below the lows of the previous 4 months in 6/27/11, reconfirming a more significant downtrend for the medium term.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) continued to consolidate short term, moving sideways. Medium term, JJC has been in a bullish trend since bottoming at 51.13 on 5/11/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 56.92, 55.50, 52.93, 52.12, 51.13. Resistance: 58.32, 58.36, 60.04, and 61.69.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) appears to be consolidating with a small Flag pattern since peaking at 97.90 on 7/14/11. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish since TLT bottomed at 88.14 on 2/9/11. A slowing economic growth rate is bullish for bond prices. Support 95.24, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 97.90, 102.27, 106.10, 107.05, and 109.32.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/12/11, confirming a minor downtrend. JNK/LQD broke down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11, confirming a major downtrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 7/11/11, and the TIP/IEF Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 6/20/11. This downtrend means that fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 2 trading days on 7/18/11, suggesting a short-term minor bounce. UUP may be forming a Triangle Bottom pattern since making a low at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.34, 21.01, and 20.84. Resistance 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 44.1% Bulls versus 22.6% Bears as of 7/13/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 1.95, which suggests moderate bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.
VIX Fear Index collapsed below the lows of the previous 8-weeks, plunging to 15.12 intraday on 7/1/11, in a surprisingly rapid swing to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.
As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.
As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,305.44) fell 10.70 points or 0.81% on Monday, July 18, 2011. SPX broke down below the lows of the previous 12 trading days.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.66% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.55% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.22% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.15% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.09% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.15% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.18% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.29% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.34% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.35% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.35% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.37% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.39% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.45% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.53% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.54% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.54% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.55% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.56% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.59% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.60% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.64% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.64% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.64% Energy Global, IXC
-0.66% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.67% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.69% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.70% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.71% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.72% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.73% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.73% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.74% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.75% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.77% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.79% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.82% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.83% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.85% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.86% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.88% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.90% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.92% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.93% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.94% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.96% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.97% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.97% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.97% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.98% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.00% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.01% Australia Index, EWA
-1.01% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.01% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.02% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.04% India PS, PIN
-1.05% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.06% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.06% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.06% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.06% Spain Index, EWP
-1.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.12% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.13% Canada Index, EWC
-1.13% Global 100, IOO
-1.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.14% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.16% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.16% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.18% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.19% Dividend International, PID
-1.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.20% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.20% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.21% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.21% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.22% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.25% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.25% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.27% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.27% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.33% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.33% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.33% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.34% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.35% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.37% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.38% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.38% Networking, IGN
-1.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.42% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.43% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.43% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.44% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.46% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.46% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.46% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.48% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.48% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.50% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.52% Germany Index, EWG
-1.52% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.54% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.54% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.55% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.56% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.60% Water Resources, PHO
-1.61% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.71% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.71% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.73% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.75% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.78% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.87% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.90% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.91% Russia MV, RSX
-1.98% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.01% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.03% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.06% France Index, EWQ
-2.12% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.17% Austria Index, EWO
-2.43% Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.46% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.92% Italy Index, EWI
-3.09% Sweden Index, EWD
