U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 7/9/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 7/9/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Energy (XLE) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 7/9/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Long term, however, XLE/SPY has been trending down since the XLE/SPY ratio peaked on 3/30/11.
U.S. stock indexes remain in short-term, minor uptrends. They opened higher again on Tuesday–and again they managed to close slightly higher than their opening prices, above their highest levels of the previous 12 trading days, and above their 50-day SMAs.
Closing prices that are only slightly higher than opening prices form Spinning Top Candlesticks, and they indicate little progress, an indecisive standoff of bulls and bears, during the regular trading session.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,652.32) finished higher by 0.72%. Curiously, the intraday high of 1,654.18 was nearly the same as the June 18th high of 1,654.19, suggesting possible resistance at that number. On Monday, SPX closed above the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement resistance at 1,638.72, based on the May-June decline. The next Fibonacci ratio resistance is at SPX 1,660.03, the 78.6% retracement of the SPX May-June decline.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE managed to rise above its 50-day SMA to confirm the short-term, minor uptrends in the price indexes.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE also rose above its 50-day SMA to confirm the short-term, minor uptrends in the price indexes.
On Monday, 6/24/13, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest closing price in 8 weeks, since 4/22/13. It fell 5.76% from 5/21/13 to 6/24/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 24 trading days. The magnitude and duration of the price decline is probably telling us that trend was different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage probably signals a Secondary Reaction (a significant correction phase) or possibly worse. In any case, caution still seems warranted–despite the recent 10-day minor price bounce.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation, bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 7/8/13, when it crossed back down below its own 50-day SMA. Absolute price has been consolidating since peaking on 5/22/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/8/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/8/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) is currently systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 7/9/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend. Previously, on 6/26/13, price rose above its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.27% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
4.37% , FDX , FEDEX
0.92% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.38% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
6.67% , KBH , KB HOME
3.91% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
1.27% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.04% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
3.15% , DE , DEERE & CO
3.43% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
4.79% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
7.55% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.21% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.65% , KR , KROGER
5.93% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
4.05% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
3.39% , CSX , CSX
2.61% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
4.40% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
0.67% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.76% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
5.48% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
6.13% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.61% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
4.51% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.58% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
1.62% , CVG , CONVERGYS
3.38% , DHR , DANAHER
1.09% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
2.47% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.07% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.87% , UIS , UNISYS
0.75% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.29% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-4.28% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-3.06% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.76% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-6.38% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.96% , EL , Estee Lauder
-1.76% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.67% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.76% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-2.50% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.71% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-1.89% , IBM , IBM
-0.53% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.99% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-1.89% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.06% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-0.73% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.58% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.25% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.00% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-2.35% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.19% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.72% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.48% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.13% , AA , ALCOA
-0.15% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.56% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.25% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.37% , NBR , NABORS
-0.73% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.83% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.29% , TJX , TJX
-0.09% , AON , AON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.62% , Germany Index, EWG
1.44% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.41% , France Index, EWQ
1.41% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.41% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.38% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
1.33% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.28% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.21% , Spain Index, EWP
1.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.17% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.16% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.15% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.09% , Italy Index, EWI
1.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.08% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.03% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.03% , Australia Index, EWA
1.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.98% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.97% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.93% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.87% , India PS, PIN
0.86% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.84% , Canada Index, EWC
0.84% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.84% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.83% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.82% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.82% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.74% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.73% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.73% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.71% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.71% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.70% , Energy Global, IXC
0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.68% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.67% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.66% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.66% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.65% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.65% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.64% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.63% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.63% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.62% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.61% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.61% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.61% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.59% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.58% , Austria Index, EWO
0.57% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.57% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.57% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.56% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.56% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.55% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.55% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.55% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.54% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.54% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.54% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.54% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.53% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.52% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.52% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.51% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.50% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.50% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.50% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.49% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.49% , Dividend International, PID
0.49% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.48% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.48% , Russia MV, RSX
0.48% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.46% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.46% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.45% , Global 100, IOO
0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.45% , Water Resources, PHO
0.44% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.41% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.41% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.40% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.40% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.40% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.39% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.39% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.38% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.37% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.35% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.30% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.29% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.27% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.27% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.27% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.25% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.24% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.24% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.23% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.23% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.19% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.16% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.16% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.14% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.13% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.11% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.10% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.10% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.07% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.18% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.21% , Networking, IGN
-0.23% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.30% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.32% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.33% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.34% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.41% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.50% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.55% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.67% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.69% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.78% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.92% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.36% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.60% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.00% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.21% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1628.25, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.71, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
