Highlights based on trading on Friday, June 1, 2012:
New data is confirming the stock market’s price downtrend.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,278.04) fell 32.29 points or 2.46% on Friday. SPX broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months and broke down below its widely-watched, 200-day SMA.
SPX has fallen 9.94% since closing at 1,419.04 two months ago, on 4/2/12. The path of least resistance still appears to be down.
NYSE volume rose 3% to confirm the stock price decline. Volume patterns have been weak, with a tendency toward lower volume on up days and higher volume on down days, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, thereby confirming significant price downtrends:
Health Care SPDR, XLV
Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
Growth VIPERs, VUG
Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
Technology DJ US, IYW
Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
LargeCap VIPERs, VV
Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
Value VIPERs, VTV
MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
Thailand MSCI iS, THD
Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
MidCap Russell, IWR
LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
Value MidCap Russell, IWS
MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
Microcap Russell, IWC
LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
Small Cap VIPERs, VB
Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
Industrial SPDR, XLI
SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
Financial DJ US, IYF
SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
Water Resources, PHO
Telecom DJ US, IYZ
Financials VIPERs, VFH
Financial SPDR, XLF
Mexico Index, EWW
Financial Services DJ, IYG
Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
Switzerland Index, EWL
Global 100, IOO
Hong Kong Index, EWH
Dividend International, PID
United Kingdom Index, EWU
Singapore Index, EWS
South Korea Index, EWY
Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
Chile MSCI iS, ECH
Belgium Index, EWK
Energy DJ, IYE
Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
Japan Index, EWJ
Energy SPDR, XLE
Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
Pacific VIPERs, VPL
SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
Energy VIPERs, VDE
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Taiwan Index, EWT
Canada Index, EWC
Agriculture DB PS, DBA
Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
Energy Global, IXC
Australia Index, EWA
Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
Emerging VIPERs, VWO
Sweden Index, EWD
Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
Indonesia MV, IDX
Germany Index, EWG
Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
European VIPERs, VGK
Netherlands Index, EWN
Latin Am 40, ILF
Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
Networking, IGN
France Index, EWQ
Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
India PS, PIN
EMU Europe Index, EZU
Austria Index, EWO
India Earnings WTree, EPI
Brazil Index, EWZ
Russia MV, RSX
Italy Index, EWI
Spain Index, EWP
WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/30/12, turning systematically bullish. OEX/SPX remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 5/31/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.72, 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/1/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 6/1/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.09, 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/1/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV/GLD remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/1/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.94% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
3.88% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
6.66% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
3.73% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.21% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.45% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.23% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.68% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
5.28% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.47% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
4.54% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.81% , CLX , CLOROX
3.13% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.55% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
5.03% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.24% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
0.32% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.43% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.37% , PPL , PPL
0.19% , WPO , Washington Post
0.09% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
0.03% , NUE , NUCOR
0.09% , SO , SOUTHERN
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.11% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-3.95% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.28% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-2.21% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-4.28% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-8.04% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-2.78% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-3.49% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.74% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.89% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-2.08% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-3.13% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.27% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-2.63% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-6.75% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-2.26% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-4.84% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-3.22% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-2.75% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.29% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-3.78% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-6.40% , COH , COACH
-8.32% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.46% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-2.72% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-6.42% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-2.75% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.63% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-2.68% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-3.09% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-6.40% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-8.90% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.95% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.47% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
2.45% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.16% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.70% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.55% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.27% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.42% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.42% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.61% Spain Index, EWP
-0.69% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.08% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.17% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.32% India PS, PIN
-1.33% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.36% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.44% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.44% Dividend International, PID
-1.48% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.52% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.54% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.54% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.58% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.58% Italy Index, EWI
-1.63% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.74% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.77% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.84% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.86% Canada Index, EWC
-1.88% Australia Index, EWA
-1.95% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.95% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.95% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.96% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.97% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.06% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.07% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.10% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.12% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.13% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.13% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.15% Global 100, IOO
-2.17% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.19% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.22% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.22% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.22% Water Resources, PHO
-2.28% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.29% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.33% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.33% Energy Global, IXC
-2.34% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.35% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.36% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.36% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.38% Austria Index, EWO
-2.39% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.39% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.42% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.46% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.47% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.49% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.50% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.52% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.52% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.53% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.53% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.53% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.54% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.57% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.58% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.61% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.62% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.63% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.64% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.64% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.66% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.66% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.67% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.68% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.70% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.72% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.73% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.75% Singapore Index, EWS
-2.75% France Index, EWQ
-2.75% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.77% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.77% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.77% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.78% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.80% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.81% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.82% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.82% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.82% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.83% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.88% Russia MV, RSX
-2.89% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.97% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.99% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.01% Networking, IGN
-3.01% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
-3.05% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-3.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-3.09% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-3.10% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-3.11% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.13% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-3.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.32% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-3.33% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-3.39% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-3.44% Germany Index, EWG
-3.46% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.46% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-3.49% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.59% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.62% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.71% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.74% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.77% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.89% Taiwan Index, EWT
-4.17% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.28% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-4.31% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-5.65% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
