Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

For months, we have been discussing the lack of rainfall in northern India as a production/yield inhibitor for the sugarcane crop.  As of mid-week last week, the seasonal rainfall in northern states was well behind normal for mid September.  In recent weeks, we have also stated that even if the pattern were to reverse and northern India were to receive excess moisture, it would be too late to make up for some of the seasonal deficiencies; further, we noted that the market has not yet priced this in.  Now, sugarcane growers are dealing with the other extreme.  Recently, the monsoon pattern has become extremely active in the north, and now the result for the region’s cane growers is not a problem of too little water, but rather it is too much.  Soils are now saturated, which will both impede current harvest activities, as well as stunt develop for next year’s cane.  Our forecast for the region over the next two weeks is calling for less rain than they have seen over the last week, but still enough to further disrupt field activities.  

Sugar has spiked over the last week, and today the market pulled back slightly.  We expect the at the current news will be supportive in the short term.

Estimates regarding deaths, those left homeless, and crop losses are varying widely at this point – we will provide more discussion surrounding the impacts in the days ahead.