The following stock price indexes, listed in order of major trend relative strength, closed above previous 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming their preexisting major uptrends:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Composite Average
The following ETFs, listed in order of major trend relative strength, closed above previous 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming their preexisting major uptrends:
Networking, IGN
Germany Index, EWG
Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
REIT Wilshire, RWR
Real Estate US DJ, IYR
REIT VIPERs, VNQ
Netherlands Index, EWN
DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
Dividend DJ Select, DVY
Consumer Discretionary SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer-term trend.
Industrial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows, reconfirming its bearish trend.
The U.S. dollar price fell below 3-day lows after running out of short-term upside momentum a little below 78.47.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.28% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.46% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
5.29% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.78% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
2.18% , CBS , CBS CORP.
2.36% , CVG , CONVERGYS
1.71% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.75% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.80% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
3.52% , EMC , EMC
2.93% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.00% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.97% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.05% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
4.31% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.66% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.97% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.33% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.43% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
1.46% , MMM , 3M
1.24% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.25% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.59% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
1.82% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
1.56% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.22% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
1.10% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.81% , VFC , VF
1.43% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
1.91% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
1.46% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.45% , KO , COCA COLA
0.13% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.34% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-5.91% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-5.67% , IR , INGER RAND
-3.79% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.77% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.70% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.63% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.94% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.03% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.63% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.53% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-3.55% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.46% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-3.37% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-3.74% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.32% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-4.71% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.58% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-2.84% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-2.40% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.14% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.88% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.67% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-1.09% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.86% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.48% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-2.08% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.33% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.11% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.66% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-2.37% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.59% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-1.10% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 2/2/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 2/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10, 83.27, and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 2/9/11 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 2/8/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.38, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.02 and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 2/9/11 but remains neutral, modestly below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 2/9/11, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer-term trend. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.13 and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/1/11 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 2/7/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.24, 36.99, 36.54, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/25/11, thereby turning bullish again. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK closed above 3-year closing price highs on 2/8/11 and remains bullish. Support 25.65, 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 9-month highs on 2/8/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.19, 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/2/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/4/11, thereby turning bullish for the short term. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.72 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/8/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 9-month highs on 2/8/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows on 2/8/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.21 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 2/9/11, reconfirming its bearish trend. The ratio turned bearish from neutral on 2/4/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned neutral from bearish on 2/1/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the short term. Long term, the ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above 3-month highs on 1/25/11, confirming an intermediate-term, secondary reaction to the upside. The ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, thereby turning neutral technically. Long term, the ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps had been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, from 3/29/2000 to 12/3/10.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/11, turning neutral for the intermediate term. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA. Long term, the ratio rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 2/2/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price consolidated minor 6-day losses with an “Inside Day” on 2/9/11. March Crude Oil has been confined to a trading range between 85.11 and 93.46 since 1/12/11. Long term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 85.11, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 92.57, 92.84, 93.46, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price consolidated 7-day gains with an “Inside Day” on 2/9/11. Gold rose above the highs of the previous 2 weeks on 2/8/11, confirming a bullish trend for the short term. Long term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 12/7/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1378.9, 1392.9, and 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 4-week highs on 2/8/11 but remains neutral, based on the relationship of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Silver nearest futures contract price closed slightly lower on 2/9/11 after rising above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 2/8/11, confirming a bullish trend for the short term. Long term, Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 29.845 and 31.275.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 4-year highs on 2/8/11, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price eased below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 2/9/11after rising above all-time highs on 2/4/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.208, 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell further below 9-month lows on 2/9/11 before reversing to close higher on the day. This one-day reversal has only minor significance, at best. Bonds have confirmed a bearish long-term major trend. Support, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.07, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bullish, above 50- and 200-day SMAs. JNK absolute price also remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace, compared to the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 3-day lows on 2/9/11 after running out of short-term upside momentum a little below 78.47, which was the high of 1/31/11. USD fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/11, and that breakdown reconfirmed an intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a downtrend. Support 77.00, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.47, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 53.4% Bulls versus 23.3% Bears as of 2/9/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.29, down from 3.00 on 1/12/11, and nearly one standard deviation above the long-term, 20-year mean. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.55, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below 3-year lows to 14.86 on 2/8/11, reflecting bullish sentiment among options players. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/12/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,320.88) eased mildly lower on 2/9/11, a day after rising above the highs of the previous 2-years, which reconfirmed its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1275.10, low of 1/28/11
1271.26, low of 1/20/11
1261.70, low of 1/7/11
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.02% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.00% Germany Index, EWG
0.87% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.68% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.67% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.65% Belgium Index, EWK
0.65% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.60% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.57% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.49% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.49% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.48% Austria Index, EWO
0.35% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.28% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.26% France Index, EWQ
0.25% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.24% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.19% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.19% Networking, IGN
0.18% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.17% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.12% European VIPERs, VGK
0.11% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.07% Spain Index, EWP
0.07% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Italy Index, EWI
0.05% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.04% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.01% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.01% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.04% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.05% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.12% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.16% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.17% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.17% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.17% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.19% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.20% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.20% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.21% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.23% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.25% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.25% Dividend International, PID
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.26% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.26% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.26% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.27% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.27% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.27% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.28% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.28% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.28% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.29% Global 100, IOO
-0.29% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.32% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.34% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.35% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.37% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.38% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.38% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.39% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.39% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.40% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.41% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.44% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.44% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.46% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.46% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.46% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.48% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.50% Australia Index, EWA
-0.51% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.52% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.52% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.56% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.58% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.61% Water Resources, PHO
-0.62% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.63% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.66% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.67% Canada Index, EWC
-0.69% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.70% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.71% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.76% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.81% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.89% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.93% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.99% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.05% Energy Global, IXC
-1.15% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.22% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.24% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.25% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.26% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.34% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.35% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.41% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.63% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.68% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.71% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.88% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.94% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.94% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.02% Russia MV, RSX
-2.13% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.30% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.33% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.36% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.37% India PS, PIN
-2.38% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.53% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.60% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.63% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.74% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
