Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 6-week highs and above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 8/18/10, thereby turning bullish. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY also is bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 8/18/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Utilities stock sector absolute price turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200).
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/18/10, again confirming a downside correction. Oil remains stuck in a correction/consolidation phase that started after the peak on 5/3/10.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/18/10, again confirming a significant upturn.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 8/18/10, reinforcing doubts about the short-term trend. The larger time frames appear uncertain.
Total U.S. stock market trading volume has been in a clear downtrend since 5/6/10, and seems unlikely to improve much in August, the traditional month for a summer vacation.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.14% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
8.88% , KG , KING PHARM
4.80% , X , US STEEL CORP
4.41% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
1.19% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.29% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
3.55% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
2.91% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
6.03% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.40% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
2.00% , TGT , TARGET
0.30% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.74% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.21% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.24% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.78% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.49% , PMR , Retail, PMR
2.66% , KMX , CarMax
3.73% , KSS , KOHLS
0.83% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
2.39% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
4.33% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
2.87% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.49% , RAI , Reynolds American
2.79% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
2.50% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.19% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
2.38% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
1.73% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.41% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.84% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.49% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
0.97% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.18% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
1.87% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
2.17% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.31% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
1.25% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.16% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
2.20% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.06% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-4.52% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.86% , KR , KROGER
-2.70% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.96% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.73% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-0.94% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.86% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.14% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.55% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.51% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-5.03% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.69% , ETN , EATON
-2.18% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-1.87% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.25% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
-0.40% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.71% , GOOG , Google
-1.57% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-1.44% , PCG , PG&E
-0.56% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.57% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.90% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.94% , GAS , NICOR
-0.78% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.57% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-0.91% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.44% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.10% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.70% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
-0.21% , VFC , VF
-1.41% , NE , NOBLE
-0.55% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.87% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.85% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.57% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.93% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.98% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.49% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.51% , RTN , RAYTHEON
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 6-week highs and above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 8/18/10, thereby turning bullish. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY also is bullish. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/9/10. XLI remains slightly above both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 8/18/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.17, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bullish on 8/11/10 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, above both 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a new 2-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 6-month low on 8/17/10 and remains bearish. The ratio turned back to bearish on 8/3/10 as it crossed below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned bearish again on 8/11/10 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to a new 10-month high on 8/16/02, confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) and absolute price both remain neutral, with the 50-day SMAs below the 200-day SMAs.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-monthlows on 8/13/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This trend has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/18/10, again confirming a downside correction. Oil remains stuck in a correction/consolidation phase that started after the peak on 5/3/10. Support 74.25, 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/18/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs on 8/17/10, thereby showing renewed upside momentum. Copper had consolidated gains since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper remains in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price soared to 19-month highs on 8/16/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned bearish for the intermediate term, heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 8/18/10, reinforcing doubts about the short-term trend. The larger time frames appear uncertain. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 8/18/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1. 18, down from 1.52 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price rose above 3-day highs on 8/17/10–this just a day after falling below 3-week lows on 8/16/10. With such contradictory trends, the stock market may not be quite ready for a sustainable directional move. SPX appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.21% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.74% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.24% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.19% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.19% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.96% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.93% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.88% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.83% Canada Index, EWC
0.80% India PS, PIN
0.74% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.68% Spain Index, EWP
0.67% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.63% Japan Index, EWJ
0.60% Networking, IGN
0.59% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.56% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.56% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.51% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.50% Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.49% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.45% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.45% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.42% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.42% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.41% Mexico Index, EWW
0.41% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.41% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.39% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.39% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.37% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.37% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.37% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.36% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.35% South Korea Index, EWY
0.34% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.33% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.32% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.31% Sweden Index, EWD
0.31% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.30% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.30% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.29% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.28% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.25% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.25% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.25% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.24% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.24% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.24% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.23% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.23% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.22% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.22% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.21% Dividend International, PID
0.21% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.21% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.18% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.17% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.17% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.16% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.14% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.13% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.13% Russia MV, RSX
0.13% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.12% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.11% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.09% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.09% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.08% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.08% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.07% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.01% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.00% Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% Germany Index, EWG
0.00% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.00% Austria Index, EWO
0.00% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.02% Global 100, IOO
-0.04% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.07% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.07% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.08% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.08% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.14% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.17% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.18% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.21% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.23% France Index, EWQ
-0.23% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.25% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.25% Italy Index, EWI
-0.30% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.32% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.32% Water Resources, PHO
-0.32% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.38% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.39% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.40% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.40% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.55% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.55% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.56% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.57% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.69% Australia Index, EWA
-0.78% Energy Global, IXC
-0.96% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.96% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.98% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.98% South Africa Index, EZA
