Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 1/3/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend.
Utilities stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratios both fell below their lows of the previous 6 years on 1/3/14, again reconfirming preexisting long-term downtrends.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,831.37, down 0.03%) absolute price opened higher on Friday but peaked after 33 minutes, at 10:03 am ET. SPX headed down for more than 2 hours but managed to hold above Thursday’s low. An afternoon rally attempt fizzled in the final 46 minutes. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing price levels of the previous 6 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 10% to a level 21% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE turned upward on Friday, but both remain below their highs set on Tuesday 12/31/13.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose somewhat from a low level of 86 on Thursday 1/2/14 to 102 on Friday. That was far below peaks above 800 last year. In December, Net New Highs remained below its previous highs of 2012 and 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 declined over the past 2 trading days, following their relatively modest recoveries from their lows on 12/13/13 and 12/17/13 to their highs on 12/31/13. Both remained below their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in December.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/3/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/3/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 12/13/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/26/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/31/13 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). USO is now below both SMAs, and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/1, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.92% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
2.86% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.61% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.35% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
2.16% , C , CITIGROUP
3.63% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.00% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.43% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.34% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
2.11% , STT , STATE STREET
1.08% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.26% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.53% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
0.66% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.30% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.43% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
2.47% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
3.59% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.28% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
1.16% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
0.62% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.54% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.53% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.27% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.73% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.11% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
0.32% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.15% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.32% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.25% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.04% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
0.34% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.19% , WAT , WATERS
-1.19% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.34% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.02% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.49% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-2.20% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.70% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.31% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-4.42% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.31% , ETR , ENTERGY
-1.22% , CB , CHUBB
-0.34% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.42% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-0.31% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.58% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.21% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.41% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.18% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.42% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.54% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.25% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.84% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.02% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.02% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.10% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.30% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.98% , BMS , BEMIS
-0.29% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.95% , ED , CON ED
-0.15% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.43% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.53% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.22% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.84% , India PS, PIN
1.22% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.12% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.99% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.99% , Australia Index, EWA
0.99% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.97% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.96% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.79% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.79% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.75% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.69% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.66% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.66% , Networking, IGN
0.65% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.63% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.59% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.59% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.59% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.56% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.56% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.54% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.54% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.54% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.53% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.51% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.49% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.46% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.44% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.44% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.44% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.38% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.37% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.35% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.35% , Water Resources, PHO
0.34% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.34% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.33% , Italy Index, EWI
0.31% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.27% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.26% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.26% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.26% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.24% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.21% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.20% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.20% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.18% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.17% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.17% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.17% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.17% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.17% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.15% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.12% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.11% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.11% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.10% , Austria Index, EWO
0.09% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.06% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.01% , Global 100, IOO
0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.00% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.02% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.02% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.03% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.05% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.05% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.09% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.13% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.13% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.15% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.16% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.17% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.19% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.21% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.23% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.24% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.24% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.24% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.26% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.27% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.27% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.28% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.29% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.31% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.32% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.32% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.33% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.34% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.35% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.36% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.37% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.37% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.43% , France Index, EWQ
-0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.48% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.58% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.61% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.62% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.62% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.63% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.63% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.69% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.72% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.72% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.74% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.78% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.94% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.19% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.24% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.34% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.37% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.40% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1849.44 high of 12/31/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1792.19, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1682.06, 200-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
