Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 1/17/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/17/14 when it whipsawed above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,838.70), down 0.39%, absolute price opened moderately lower, recovered to the plus side by 12:21 pm ET, but fell below the early low and its intraday lows of the previous 2 trading days in the final hour. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of previous 3 trading days.
NYSE total volume rose 5% to a level 4% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 240 on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14. These numbers are still far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/16/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. More recently, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/16/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO remains below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/17/14 when it whipsawed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
24.21% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
6.07% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.63% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
11.88% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
3.50% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.53% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.89% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
2.10% , AZO , AUTOZONE
2.51% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
2.67% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
4.38% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.16% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.28% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.43% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
2.85% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.19% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.09% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.81% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
0.67% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
1.26% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.34% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.13% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
2.90% , AA , ALCOA
0.95% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.33% , EFX , EQUIFAX
2.80% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.00% , FLR , FLUOR
0.54% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.96% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.25% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.85% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.69% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.40% , GLW , CORNING
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.84% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-5.30% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-4.25% , MAS , MASCO
-1.83% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-3.04% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-2.28% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-2.19% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-2.34% , MTB , M&T BANK
-2.60% , INTC , INTEL
-2.47% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-2.09% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-2.45% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-3.24% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-3.14% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.87% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.58% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-1.03% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.95% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.95% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-3.21% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.66% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-1.05% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.35% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-0.42% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.85% , NUE , NUCOR
-1.00% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.08% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.19% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.63% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-3.60% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.78% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.60% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.64% , CB , CHUBB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.53% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.95% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.83% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.75% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.48% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.42% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.35% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.26% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.24% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.21% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.12% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.11% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.11% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.11% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.09% , Networking, IGN
0.08% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.06% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.06% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% , Russia MV, RSX
0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.02% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.03% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.03% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.05% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.05% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.06% , Dividend International, PID
-0.08% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.08% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.08% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.09% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.09% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.10% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.10% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.10% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.11% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.11% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.12% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.16% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.17% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.21% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.22% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.23% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.23% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.23% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.27% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.29% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.30% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.30% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.30% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.30% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.31% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.31% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.32% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.32% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.32% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.32% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.33% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.34% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.35% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.35% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.35% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.35% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.35% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.37% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.38% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.38% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.39% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.39% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.39% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.40% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.40% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.40% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.40% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.41% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.41% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.43% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.44% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.44% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.45% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.45% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.45% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.45% , Global 100, IOO
-0.46% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.47% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.48% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.48% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.48% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.49% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.50% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.50% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.50% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.52% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.53% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.54% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.54% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.55% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.56% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.56% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.57% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.58% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.58% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.59% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.59% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.60% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.60% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.60% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.61% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.62% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.64% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.67% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.67% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.70% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.77% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.77% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.78% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.78% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.88% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.95% , France Index, EWQ
-0.99% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.10% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.11% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.12% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.25% , India PS, PIN
-1.28% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.30% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.45% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.85% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1807.57, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.95, 200-day SMA
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
