Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/20/10, again confirming a downside correction that started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-week highs on 8/20/10, signaling a short-term correction to the upside. The larger time frames appear uncertain, however.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,071.69) price fell below 4-week lows on 8/20/10. SPX may be trying to make a stand near the 1071.07 Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. This could be a support zone, although technical indicators appear mixed. Since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Currently, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.04% , INTU , INTUIT
5.33% , TYC , TYCO INTL
8.38% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.80% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
0.35% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
3.05% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.14% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
3.79% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.57% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.46% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
3.60% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
2.77% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.07% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.00% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.08% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
3.08% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.20% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
1.44% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
1.09% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
1.69% , PCG , PG&E
1.11% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.29% , NCR , NCR
2.32% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.16% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.53% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
0.45% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.50% , GENZ , GENZYME
0.69% , NOVL , NOVELL
0.93% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
1.25% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.51% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.12% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.95% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.69% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
2.79% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
0.91% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
0.25% , DELL , DELL
0.20% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.32% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.21% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.53% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-2.42% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.76% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.81% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.79% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.56% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.13% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.22% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-1.44% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-3.45% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.33% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-1.83% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.51% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.87% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-2.00% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.82% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-3.13% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.39% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-1.03% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-0.52% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-2.23% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-3.90% , NBR , NABORS
-2.04% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-2.05% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.99% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-4.10% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.23% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-2.17% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-0.81% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.61% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.46% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-1.84% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.16% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-2.91% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.50% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.12% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-0.48% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.25% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.79% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-2.85% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned bearish (but only slightly) on 8/20/10 as the 50-day SMA fell a little bit below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.17, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/9/10. XLI remains slightly above both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, with 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 7-month high on 8/18/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 7-month low on 8/19/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-monthlows on 8/13/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This trend has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 6-week lows on 8/20/10, again confirming a downside correction that started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Support 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 7-week highs on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price has been consolidating previous gains since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper may remain in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.4105, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to another 19-month high on 8/19/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned bearish for the intermediate term, heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-week highs on 8/20/10, signaling a short-term correction to the upside. The larger time frames appear uncertain, however. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 8/18/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1. 18, down from 1.52 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,071.69) price fell below 4-week lows on 8/20/10. SPX may be trying to make a stand near the 1071.07 Gann 50.0% retracement of June-Aug. 2010 range. This could be a support zone, although technical indicators appear mixed. Since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Currently, investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market appears to be correcting and consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.88, low of 7/20/10
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.67% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.11% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.92% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.79% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.56% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.50% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.42% Networking, IGN
0.33% Singapore Index, EWS
0.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.32% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.29% Australia Index, EWA
0.27% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.26% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.26% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.25% China 25 iS, FXI
0.24% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.21% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.18% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.13% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.13% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.12% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.11% India PS, PIN
0.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.08% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.02% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.00% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.00% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.02% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.08% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.09% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.09% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.09% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.12% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.12% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.14% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.18% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.22% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.22% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.22% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.23% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.23% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.23% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.24% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.25% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.25% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.25% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.25% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.27% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.28% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.29% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.29% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.30% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.30% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.30% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.31% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.32% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.32% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.34% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.35% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.35% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.35% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.35% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.37% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.40% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.40% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.41% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.42% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.42% Russia MV, RSX
-0.43% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.44% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.47% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.48% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.49% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.49% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.50% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.51% Dividend International, PID
-0.51% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.53% Water Resources, PHO
-0.54% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.56% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.59% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.63% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.65% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.79% Energy Global, IXC
-0.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.83% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.83% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.84% Canada Index, EWC
-0.89% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.90% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.94% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.97% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.03% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.04% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.05% Global 100, IOO
-1.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.08% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.11% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.13% Austria Index, EWO
-1.14% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.19% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.23% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.25% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.25% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.27% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.34% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.44% Italy Index, EWI
-1.60% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.71% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.72% France Index, EWQ
-1.84% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.96% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.04% Germany Index, EWG
-2.08% Spain Index, EWP
-2.15% Sweden Index, EWD
