Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 10/2/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,946.17, up 0.00%) absolute price opened slightly lower and fell to a V bottom at 11:44 am ET. SPX turned positive in the afternoon but surrendered that modest gain in the final hour. SPX closed above the (true) open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and slightly above the closing price of the previous day.
NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 25% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -187, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered Minor Ripple downside corrections since that new high.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/30/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 10/2/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose back above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.43, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 9/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 105.23, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 17 months on 10/1/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 7 months on 9/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 33.64, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 10/1/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.05% , AN , AUTONATION
7.47% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.88% , MKC , MCCORMICK
1.47% , CMI , CUMMINS
2.23% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.31% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.43% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.71% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
1.01% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.23% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
2.24% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.05% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.55% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.82% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.61% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.18% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
2.30% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.28% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.51% , PCAR , PACCAR
1.50% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.17% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.71% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.00% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.56% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.40% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.76% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.09% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.14% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.39% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.24% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.47% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.51% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
0.99% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.70% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.17% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-2.00% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-2.98% , NBR , NABORS
-3.77% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.45% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-4.82% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-1.52% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.48% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.43% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.57% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.38% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-2.05% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-0.66% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.65% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.84% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.39% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.58% , AVP , AVON
-1.22% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.50% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.08% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.69% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-1.26% , WAT , WATERS
-1.93% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.56% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-1.40% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.93% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.89% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.90% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.80% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.68% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.33% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.17% , AA , ALCOA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.50% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.43% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.26% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.24% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.23% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.09% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.05% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.00% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.99% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.98% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.96% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.89% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.88% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.84% , India PS, PIN
0.83% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.81% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.81% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.74% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.70% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.66% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.66% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.64% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.61% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.61% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.59% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.55% , Russia MV, RSX
0.54% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.54% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.54% , Networking, IGN
0.46% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.42% , Australia Index, EWA
0.41% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.38% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.33% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.32% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.31% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.28% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.26% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.26% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.24% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.23% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.23% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.20% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.19% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.16% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.15% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.15% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.11% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.04% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.03% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.03% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.02% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.01% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.01% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.00% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.00% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.02% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.02% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.03% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.04% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.05% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.06% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.07% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.09% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.12% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.14% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.15% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.16% , Dividend International, PID
-0.16% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.17% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.17% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.19% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.21% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.23% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.25% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.25% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.30% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.36% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.37% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.38% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.38% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.39% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.40% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.42% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.45% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.50% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.50% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.54% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.61% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.63% , Global 100, IOO
-0.68% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.68% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.76% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.84% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.84% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.86% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.87% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.88% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.92% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.93% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.94% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.07% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.12% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.16% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.17% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.20% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.22% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.37% , France Index, EWQ
-1.39% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.47% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.84% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.90% , Japan Index, EWJ
-2.45% , Italy Index, EWI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1975.16, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1901.27, 200-day SMA
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
| Rank | Stock Sectors Ranked by Relative Strength | CLOSE | C/50 SMA | C/200 SMA | 50/200 |
| 1 | Health Care SPDR, XLV | 63.11 | 0.20% | 6.05% | 5.84% |
| 2 | Technology SPDR, XLK | 39.26 | -1.22% | 5.03% | 6.33% |
| 3 | Financial SPDR, XLF | 22.95 | -0.40% | 2.94% | 3.35% |
| 4 | Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP | 44.91 | 0.28% | 2.82% | 2.53% |
| 5 | Utilities SPDR, XLU | 42.27 | 0.09% | 2.36% | 2.27% |
| 6 | Materials SPDR, XLB | 48.30 | -3.20% | 0.72% | 4.05% |
| 7 | Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY | 66.10 | -2.20% | 0.28% | 2.53% |
| 8 | Industrial SPDR, XLI | 52.09 | -2.48% | -1.29% | 1.22% |
| 9 | Energy SPDR, XLE | 88.31 | -7.69% | -4.40% | 3.57% |
